Offshore wind turbine reliability and operational simulation under uncertainties
| Autor: | Cuong D. Dao, Behzad Kazemtabrizi, Christopher J. Crabtree |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2020 |
| Předmět: |
Downtime
Wind power Renewable Energy Sustainability and the Environment business.industry Computer science 020209 energy 02 engineering and technology 01 natural sciences Turbine 010305 fluids & plasmas Reliability engineering Offshore wind power Probabilistic method 0103 physical sciences 0202 electrical engineering electronic engineering information engineering Capital cost business Reliability (statistics) Cost database |
| Zdroj: | Wind energy, 2020, Vol.23(10), pp.1919-1938 [Peer Reviewed Journal] |
| ISSN: | 1099-1824 1095-4244 |
| Popis: | The fast‐growing offshore wind energy sector brings opportunities to provide a sustainable energy resource but also challenges in offshore wind turbine (OWT) operation and maintenance management. Existing operational simulation models assume deterministic input reliability and failure cost data, whereas OWT reliability and failure costs vary depending on several factors, and it is often not possible to specify them with certainty. This paper focuses on modelling reliability and failure cost uncertainties and their impacts on OWT operational and economic performance. First, we present a probabilistic method for modelling reliability data uncertainty with a quantitative parameter estimation from available reliability data resources. Then, failure cost uncertainty is modelled using fuzzy logic that relates a component's failure cost to its capital cost and downtime. A time‐sequential Monte Carlo simulation is presented to simulate operational sequences of OWT components. This operation profile is later fed into a fuzzy cost assessment and coupled with a wind power curve model to evaluate OWT availability, energy production, operational expenditures and levelised cost of energy. A case study with different sets of reliability data is presented, and the results show that impacts of uncertainty on OWT performance are magnified in databases with low components' reliability. In addition, both reliability and cost uncertainties can contribute to more than 10% of the cost of energy variation. This research can provide practitioners with methods to handle data uncertainties in reliability and operational simulation of OWTs and help them to quantify the variability and dependence of wind power performance on data uncertainties. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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