Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets
Autor: | Richard I. Cullather, Sainan Sun, Robin S. Smith, Martin Rückamp, Philippe Huybrechts, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Christopher M. Little, Daniel P. Lowry, Fiammetta Straneo, Jonas Van Breedam, Xavier Fettweis, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Ricarda Winkelmann, Gunter R. Leguy, Isabel Nias, Erika Simon, Eric Larour, Sophie Nowicki, J. K. Cuzzone, Patrick Alexander, Cheng Zhao, Tore Hattermann, Heiko Goelzer, Christophe Dumas, Alice Barthel, Torsten Albrecht, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Helene Seroussi, Christopher Chambers, Andrew Shepherd, Frank Pattyn, Rupert Gladstone, Nicole Schlegel, Xylar Asay-Davis, Denis Felikson, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Mathieu Morlighem, Victoria Lee, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andy Aschwanden, Ralf Greve, Tamsin L. Edwards, Reinhard Calov, Thomas Kleiner, Donald Slater, Tong Zhang, Antony J. Payne, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Cécile Agosta, Luke D. Trusel, Lev Tarasov, Aurélien Quiquet, Nicholas R. Golledge, Youngmin Choi, William H. Lipscomb, Stephen Price, Angelika Humbert, Sébastien Le clec'h, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Matthew J. Hoffman, Tyler Pelle, Jonathan M. Gregory, Thomas Zwinger, Ronja Reese |
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Přispěvatelé: | Earth System Sciences, Geography, Physical Geography, Marine and Atmospheric Research, Sub Dynamics Meteorology, Proceskunde, Sub Algemeen Marine & Atmospheric Res |
Rok vydání: | 2021 |
Předmět: |
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
Effects of global warming on oceans Greenland Antarctic ice sheet F700 Earth and Planetary Sciences(all) F800 sea level 010502 geochemistry & geophysics 7. Clean energy 01 natural sciences Sea level 0105 earth and related environmental sciences Coupled model intercomparison project geography geography.geographical_feature_category Future sea level ice sheet Ice-sheet model Geophysics 13. Climate action Climatology General Earth and Planetary Sciences Environmental science Antarctica Climate model Ice sheet |
Zdroj: | Geophysical Research Letters, Vol 48 Geophysical Research Letters, 48(16), 1. Wiley Online Library EPIC3Geophysical Research Letters, 48(16), pp. e2020GL091741, ISSN: 0094-8276 Payne, A J, Nowicki, S, Abe-Ouchi, A, Agosta, C, Alexander, P, Albrecht, T, Asay-Davis, X, Aschwanden, A, Barthel, A, Bracegirdle, T J, Calov, R, Chambers, C, Choi, Y, Cullather, R, Cuzzone, J, Dumas, C, Edwards, T L, Felikson, D, Fettweis, X, Galton-Fenzi, B K, Goelzer, H, Gladstone, R, Golledge, N R, Gregory, J M, Greve, R, Hattermann, T, Hoffman, M J, Humbert, A, Huybrechts, P, Jourdain, N C, Kleiner, T, Munneke, P K, Larour, E, Le clec'h, S, Lee, V, Leguy, G, Lipscomb, W H, Little, C M, Lowry, D P, Morlighem, M, Nias, I, Pattyn, F, Pelle, T, Price, S F, Quiquet, A, Reese, R, Rückamp, M, Schlegel, N J, Seroussi, H, Shepherd, A, Simon, E, Slater, D, Smith, R S, Straneo, F, Sun, S, Tarasov, L, Trusel, L D, Van Breedam, J, van de Wal, R, van den Broeke, M, Winkelmann, R, Zhao, C, Zhang, T & Zwinger, T 2021, ' Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets ', Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 48, no. 16, e2020GL091741 . https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091741 GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN: | 0094-8276 |
DOI: | 10.1029/2020gl091741 |
Popis: | Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS) rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming. |
Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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