Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets

Autor: Richard I. Cullather, Sainan Sun, Robin S. Smith, Martin Rückamp, Philippe Huybrechts, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Christopher M. Little, Daniel P. Lowry, Fiammetta Straneo, Jonas Van Breedam, Xavier Fettweis, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Ricarda Winkelmann, Gunter R. Leguy, Isabel Nias, Erika Simon, Eric Larour, Sophie Nowicki, J. K. Cuzzone, Patrick Alexander, Cheng Zhao, Tore Hattermann, Heiko Goelzer, Christophe Dumas, Alice Barthel, Torsten Albrecht, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Helene Seroussi, Christopher Chambers, Andrew Shepherd, Frank Pattyn, Rupert Gladstone, Nicole Schlegel, Xylar Asay-Davis, Denis Felikson, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Mathieu Morlighem, Victoria Lee, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andy Aschwanden, Ralf Greve, Tamsin L. Edwards, Reinhard Calov, Thomas Kleiner, Donald Slater, Tong Zhang, Antony J. Payne, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Cécile Agosta, Luke D. Trusel, Lev Tarasov, Aurélien Quiquet, Nicholas R. Golledge, Youngmin Choi, William H. Lipscomb, Stephen Price, Angelika Humbert, Sébastien Le clec'h, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Matthew J. Hoffman, Tyler Pelle, Jonathan M. Gregory, Thomas Zwinger, Ronja Reese
Přispěvatelé: Earth System Sciences, Geography, Physical Geography, Marine and Atmospheric Research, Sub Dynamics Meteorology, Proceskunde, Sub Algemeen Marine & Atmospheric Res
Rok vydání: 2021
Předmět:
Zdroj: Geophysical Research Letters, Vol 48
Geophysical Research Letters, 48(16), 1. Wiley Online Library
EPIC3Geophysical Research Letters, 48(16), pp. e2020GL091741, ISSN: 0094-8276
Payne, A J, Nowicki, S, Abe-Ouchi, A, Agosta, C, Alexander, P, Albrecht, T, Asay-Davis, X, Aschwanden, A, Barthel, A, Bracegirdle, T J, Calov, R, Chambers, C, Choi, Y, Cullather, R, Cuzzone, J, Dumas, C, Edwards, T L, Felikson, D, Fettweis, X, Galton-Fenzi, B K, Goelzer, H, Gladstone, R, Golledge, N R, Gregory, J M, Greve, R, Hattermann, T, Hoffman, M J, Humbert, A, Huybrechts, P, Jourdain, N C, Kleiner, T, Munneke, P K, Larour, E, Le clec'h, S, Lee, V, Leguy, G, Lipscomb, W H, Little, C M, Lowry, D P, Morlighem, M, Nias, I, Pattyn, F, Pelle, T, Price, S F, Quiquet, A, Reese, R, Rückamp, M, Schlegel, N J, Seroussi, H, Shepherd, A, Simon, E, Slater, D, Smith, R S, Straneo, F, Sun, S, Tarasov, L, Trusel, L D, Van Breedam, J, van de Wal, R, van den Broeke, M, Winkelmann, R, Zhao, C, Zhang, T & Zwinger, T 2021, ' Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets ', Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 48, no. 16, e2020GL091741 . https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091741
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN: 0094-8276
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl091741
Popis: Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS) rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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