Unemployment (Fears) and Deflationary Spirals
| Autor: | Wouter J Den Haan, Pontus Rendahl, Markus Riegler |
|---|---|
| Přispěvatelé: | Karner Rendahl, Pontus [0000-0003-3052-5732], Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository |
| Rok vydání: | 2017 |
| Předmět: |
Magnification
38 Economics HC Economic History and Conditions jel:E41 jel:J64 jel:J65 jel:E24 Heterogeneous agents 3801 Applied Economics 0502 economics and business Search friction Keynesian unemployment 050207 economics Propagation 050205 econometrics HB Economic Theory 05 social sciences business cycles heterogeneous agents magnification propagation search friction 1. No poverty jel:E32 Keynesian Unemployment Business Cycles Search Frictions Magnification Propogation Heterogenous Agents Business cycles jel:E12 8 Decent Work and Economic Growth HD Industries. Land use. Labor 3802 Econometrics 8. Economic growth 3803 Economic Theory General Economics Econometrics and Finance |
| Zdroj: | Journal of the European Economic Association Recercat. Dipósit de la Recerca de Catalunya instname Recercat: Dipósit de la Recerca de Catalunya Varias* (Consorci de Biblioteques Universitáries de Catalunya, Centre de Serveis Científics i Acadèmics de Catalunya) Repositorio Digital de la UPF Universitat Pompeu Fabra Dipòsit Digital de Documents de la UAB Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona |
| ISSN: | 1542-4766 |
| DOI: | 10.1093/jeea/jvx040 |
| Popis: | The interaction of incomplete markets and sticky nominal wages is shown to magnify business cycles even though these two features—in isolation—dampen them. During recessions, fears of unemployment stir up precautionary sentiments that induce agents to save more. The additional savings may be used as investments in both a productive asset (equity) and an unproductive nominal liquid asset. The desire to hold the nominal liquid asset puts deflationary pressure on the economy which, provided that nominal wages are sticky, increases labor costs, and reduces firm profits. Lower profits repress the desire to save in equity, which increases (the fear of) unemployment, and so on. This mechanism causes the model to behave differently from its complete markets version and is quantitatively important even if monetary policy counteracts the desire to hold more of the liquid asset by lowering the interest rate. The deflationary pressure yields a mean-reverting reduction in the price level, which implies an increase in expected inflation and a decrease in the expected real interest rate even if the policy rate does not adjust. Thus, our mechanism is different from the typical zero lower bound argument. Due to the deflationary spiral, our model also behaves differently from its incomplete market version without aggregate uncertainty, especially in terms of the impact of unemployment insurance on average employment levels. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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