A framework for ensemble modelling of climate change impacts on lakes worldwide: the ISIMIP Lake Sector
| Autor: | Malgorzata Golub, Wim Thiery, Rafael Marcé, Don Pierson, Inne Vanderkelen, Daniel Mercado-Bettin, R. Iestyn Woolway, Luke Grant, Eleanor Jennings, Benjamin M. Kraemer, Jacob Schewe, Fang Zhao, Katja Frieler, Matthias Mengel, Vasiliy Y. Bogomolov, Damien Bouffard, Marianne Côté, Raoul-Marie Couture, Andrey V. Debolskiy, Bram Droppers, Gideon Gal, Mingyang Guo, Annette B. G. Janssen, Georgiy Kirillin, Robert Ladwig, Madeline Magee, Tadhg Moore, Marjorie Perroud, Sebastiano Piccolroaz, Love Raaman Vinnaa, Martin Schmid, Tom Shatwell, Victor M. Stepanenko, Zeli Tan, Bronwyn Woodward, Huaxia Yao, Rita Adrian, Mathew Allan, Orlane Anneville, Lauri Arvola, Karen Atkins, Leon Boegman, Cayelan Carey, Kyle Christianson, Elvira de Eyto, Curtis DeGasperi, Maria Grechushnikova, Josef Hejzlar, Klaus Joehnk, Ian D. Jones, Alo Laas, Eleanor B. Mackay, Ivan Mammarella, Hampus Markensten, Chris McBride, Deniz Özkundakci, Miguel Potes, Karsten Rinke, Dale Robertson, James A. Rusak, Rui Salgado, Leon van der Linden, Piet Verburg, Danielle Wain, Nicole K. Ward, Sabine Wollrab, Galina Zdorovennova |
|---|---|
| Přispěvatelé: | Biosciences, Biological stations, Lammi Biological Station, University of Helsinki, Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR), Department of Physics, Micrometeorology and biogeochemical cycles, Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering, Faculty of Engineering |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2022 |
| Předmět: |
1171 Geosciences
Climate Research DATABASE последствия изменения климата моделирование воздействия изменения климата UNCERTAINTY Oceanografi hydrologi och vattenresurser SURFACE-TEMPERATURE Klimatforskning models Oceanography Hydrology and Water Resources Meteorology and Climatology озера ensemble modelling lakes 500 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik::550 Geowissenschaften Geologie::550 Geowissenschaften Life Science Geosciences Multidisciplinary 1172 Environmental sciences AIR-TEMPERATURE Science & Technology WIMEK ISIMIP WATER TEMPERATURE limnology ICE climate change impacts Geology General Medicine изменение климата NORTHERN-HEMISPHERE EVAPORATION climate change Physical Sciences SIMULATION Water Systems and Global Change Hydrology SENSITIVITY |
| Zdroj: | Geoscientific Model Development, 15(11), 4597-4623 Geoscientific Model Development 15 (2022) 11 Geoscientific model development. 2022. Vol. 15, № 11. P. 4597-4623 |
| ISSN: | 1991-959X 1991-9603 |
| Popis: | Empirical evidence demonstrates that lakes and reservoirs are warming across the globe. Consequently, there is an increased need to project future changes in lake thermal structure and resulting changes in lake biogeochemistry in order to plan for the likely impacts. Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on lakes have often relied on a single model forced with limited scenario-driven projections of future climate for a relatively small number of lakes. As a result, our understanding of the effects of climate change on lakes is fragmentary, based on scattered studies using different data sources and modelling protocols, and mainly focused on individual lakes or lake regions. This has precluded identification of the main impacts of climate change on lakes at global and regional scales and has likely contributed to the lack of lake water quality considerations in policy-relevant documents, such as the Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Here, we describe a simulation protocol developed by the Lake Sector of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) for simulating climate change impacts on lakes using an ensemble of lake models and climate change scenarios for ISIMIP phases 2 and 3. The protocol prescribes lake simulations driven by climate forcing from gridded observations and different Earth system models under various representative greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCPs), all consistently bias-corrected on a 0.5∘ × 0.5∘ global grid. In ISIMIP phase 2, 11 lake models were forced with these data to project the thermal structure of 62 well-studied lakes where data were available for calibration under historical conditions, and using uncalibrated models for 17 500 lakes defined for all global grid cells containing lakes. In ISIMIP phase 3, this approach was expanded to consider more lakes, more models, and more processes. The ISIMIP Lake Sector is the largest international effort to project future water temperature, thermal structure, and ice phenology of lakes at local and global scales and paves the way for future simulations of the impacts of climate change on water quality and biogeochemistry in lakes. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
|