Optimism bias evaluation and decision-making risk forecast on bridge project cost based on reference class forecasting: Evidence from China
Autor: | Huimin Liu, Canhui Jiang, Yan Liu, Marcel Hertogh, Xue Lyu |
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Jazyk: | angličtina |
Rok vydání: | 2018 |
Předmět: |
Computer science
lcsh:TJ807-830 Geography Planning and Development Optimism bias Reference class forecasting lcsh:Renewable energy sources 0211 other engineering and technologies Distribution (economics) 02 engineering and technology Management Monitoring Policy and Law Bridge (nautical) Cost overrun Risk model 021105 building & construction 0502 economics and business Field research Megaproject lcsh:Environmental sciences Monte Carlo simulation lcsh:GE1-350 050210 logistics & transportation Renewable Energy Sustainability and the Environment business.industry lcsh:Environmental effects of industries and plants Project risk management 05 social sciences lcsh:TD194-195 Risk analysis (engineering) Project risk business Decision making |
Zdroj: | Sustainability, 10(11) Sustainability Volume 10 Issue 11 Sustainability, Vol 10, Iss 11, p 3981 (2018) |
ISSN: | 2071-1050 |
Popis: | The high uncertainty of megaproject results in increasing complexity in the decision-making and ultimately leads to different degrees of cost overrun and project delays. One of the critical reasons for cost overrun and delay is the optimism bias of decision makers. Although the previous literature has analyzed the cost overrun distribution of bridges, roads and other infrastructure projects, there is still a lack of research on how to make more reasonable decisions according to the cost overrun risk and cost-benefit theory by considering the expectation of cost overrun. Therefore, this paper firstly measures optimism bias by conducting the field research and interviews regarding over 30 long bridges in China. On the basis of the optimism bias measure, a decision-making risk model of bridge projects with the expectation of cost overrun has been built. Then the paper takes Hangzhou Bay Bridge as an example to discuss the influence of cost overrun predication, implicit benefits and the project’s operation time on NPV results. Moreover, the probability of project unbuildability risk under different degrees of cost optimism bias has also been discussed. Finally, suggestions for risk forecast are provided for decision-makers to make more objective and comprehensive judgments. |
Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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