Quo vadis Pantanal? Expected precipitation extremes and drought dynamics from changing sea surface temperature

Autor: Paolo Ramoni-Perazzi, Karl-L. Schuchmann, Marco Marquez, Dirk Thielen, José Isrrael Quintero, Marinêz Isaac Marques, Wilmer Rojas
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2020
Předmět:
Atmospheric Science
El Niño-Southern Oscillation
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
Rain
0208 environmental biotechnology
Drainage basin
Wetland
02 engineering and technology
Oceanography
01 natural sciences
Flooding
Land use
land-use change and forestry
El Nino-Southern Oscillation
Climatology
Multidisciplinary
geography.geographical_feature_category
Ecology
Temperature
Surface Temperature
Droughts
Physical Sciences
Medicine
Seasons
Brazil
Ecosystem Functioning
Research Article
Surface Properties
Climate Change
Oceans and Seas
Science
Materials Science
Material Properties
Climate change
Ecosystems
Meteorology
Humans
Ecosystem
Precipitation
Ocean Temperature
0105 earth and related environmental sciences
geography
Pacific Ocean
Drought
Ecology and Environmental Sciences
Northern Hemisphere
Biology and Life Sciences
Floods
Marine and aquatic sciences
020801 environmental engineering
Sea surface temperature
Wetlands
Earth Sciences
Environmental science
Hydrology
Zdroj: PLoS ONE, Vol 15, Iss 1, p e0227437 (2020)
PLoS ONE
ISSN: 1932-6203
Popis: Climate change poses a critical threat to the Pantanal, the largest wetland in the world. Models indicate an increase in the frequency of extreme precipitation events and extended periods of drought. These changes can amplify consequences for Pantanal’s ecological functioning, which has already experienced intensive human modification of its hydrological system and environmental health. The present study analyzed the spatial and temporal dynamics of rainfall and resulting extremes in the Brazilian area of the Upper Paraguay River Basin (UPRB) along with a co-evaluation of the global Sea Surface Temperature data (SST). The predicted results indicate that wet extreme precipitation events will become more frequent in the highlands, while severe and prolonged droughts triggered by warming SSTs in the Northern Hemisphere (North Atlantic and North Pacific oceans) will affect the Pantanal. The linear relations between precipitation with SST of very specific oceanic regions and even from specific oceanic indexes obtained in the present study significantly improve the forecasting capacity, mainly from a resulting reduction to two months of the lead-time between SST warming to concomitant precipitation impacts, and by explaining 80% of Pantanal´s precipitation variation from major oceanic indexes (e.g., ENSO, PDO, NAO, ATL3). Current SST trends will result in inter- and intra-annual flooding dynamic alterations, drastically affecting the Pantanal ecosystem functioning, with consequences for wildlife diversity and distribution. Regarding the foreseeable global climate and land use change scenarios, the results from the present study provide solid evidence that can be used at different decision-making levels (from local to global) for identifying the most appropriate management practices and effectively achieving sustainability of the anthropic activity occurring in the Pantanal.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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