Modelling SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a UK university setting
| Autor: | Louise Dyson, Edward M. Hill, Michael J. Tildesley, Matthew James Keeling, Benjamin D. Atkins |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: |
Isolation (health care)
Universities Epidemiology 030231 tropical medicine education Psychological intervention Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216 Microbiology Article law.invention 03 medical and health sciences 0302 clinical medicine law Virology Pandemic Humans Medicine 030212 general & internal medicine Pandemics Academic year Mathematical epidemiology business.industry SARS-CoV-2 Public Health Environmental and Occupational Health COVID-19 Academic term United Kingdom Term (time) Test (assessment) Infectious Diseases Transmission (mechanics) Parasitology Infectious disease model business RA Contact tracing Demography |
| Zdroj: | Epidemics, Vol 36, Iss, Pp 100476-(2021) Epidemics |
| ISSN: | 1755-4365 |
| Popis: | Background Around 40% of school leavers in the UK attend university and individual universities generally host thousands of students each academic year. Bringing together these student communities during the COVID-19 pandemic may require strong interventions to control transmission. Prior modelling analysis of SARS-CoV-2 transmission within universities that use compartmental modelling approaches suggest that outbreaks are almost inevitable. Methods We constructed a network-based model to capture the interactions of a student population in different settings (housing, social and study). For a single academic term of a representative campus-based university, we ran a susceptible-latent-infectious-recovered type epidemic process, parameterised according to available estimates for SARS-CoV-2. We investigated the impact of: adherence to (or effectiveness of) isolation and test and trace measures; single-room isolation of cases; supplementary mass testing. Results Incorporating uncertainty in the asymptomatic fraction of cases and their associated infectivity, in the absence of interventions our model estimated that 69% (55% - 75%) of the student population could be infected during the autumn term. With full adherence to test, trace and isolate measures, we found lower cumulative infection estimates of 19% (5% - 39%). Irrespective of the adherence to isolation measures, on average a higher proportion of students resident on-campus became infected than off-campus. Room isolation generated minimal benefits. A one-off instance of mass testing would not drastically reduce the term-long case load, though if performed a couple of weeks before the end-of-term it could reduce the expected end-of-term prevalence. Regular testing, together with high adherence to isolation, test and trace measures, could reduce the proportion infected during the term by more than 50% compared to having no mass testing. Conclusions Our findings suggest SARS-CoV-2 may readily transmit in a university setting if there is limited adherence to nonpharmaceutical interventions and/or there are delays in receiving test results. Following isolation guidance and effective contact tracing curbed transmission and reduced the expected time an adhering student would spend in isolation. Additionally, widespread adherence throughout the term suppresses the amount of unwitting asymptomatic transmission to family and community members in the students’ domicile regions after term ends. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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