Effects of Climate Change and Heterogeneity of Local Climates оn the Development of Malaria Parasite (Plasmodium vivax) in Moscow Megacity Region
| Autor: | Mikhail Varentsov, Natalia Shartova, Mikhail Yurievich Grishchenko, Andrei E. Beljaev, Varvara A. Mironova |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2019 |
| Předmět: |
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
Climate Health Toxicology and Mutagenesis 030231 tropical medicine Plasmodium vivax lcsh:Medicine Climate change Moscow 01 natural sciences Article Russia 03 medical and health sciences malaria season 0302 clinical medicine Effects of global warming parasitic diseases Malaria Vivax vivax malaria medicine Animals Humans Urban heat island Socioeconomics 0105 earth and related environmental sciences biology Urbanization lcsh:R Temperature Public Health Environmental and Occupational Health urban heat island medicine.disease biology.organism_classification Spatial heterogeneity climate change Geography Megacity Seasons Rural area Malaria |
| Zdroj: | International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, Vol 16, Iss 5, p 694 (2019) International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health Volume 16 Issue 5 |
| ISSN: | 1660-4601 |
| DOI: | 10.3390/ijerph16050694 |
| Popis: | The article presents the results of a spatio-temporal analysis of the changes of the favorability of climatic conditions for the transmission of vivax malaria in the Moscow megacity and its surroundings during the period from 1977 to 2016. Using the historical temperature records at urban and rural weather stations, we calculated the key indicators of climate favorability for malaria transmission, viz. the sum of effective temperatures, the duration of the season of effective infectiveness, and a new integral index of climate favorability. We demonstrated a dramatic increase of all three indicators, which accelerated after 1984, and a high spatial heterogeneity among them. Due to the urban heat island effect, the degree of climatic favorability is especially high in the densely urbanized areas of Moscow megacity compared with the suburban and rural areas. Climatic conditions for vivax malaria in Moscow are better now than before. The season of effective infectiveness continues in the central part of the city for 25 days longer, and the integral index of climate favorability is 85% higher in comparison to mean values over the rural surroundings. The study contains an alert regarding the risk of malaria resurgence in the Moscow region in the case of the sufficient importation of cases from abroad. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
|