A first estimation of the impact of public health actions against COVID-19 in Veneto (Italy)
| Autor: | Giulia Lorenzoni, Nicolas Destro, Ilaria Prosepe, Corrado Lanera, Dario Gregori, Paola Berchialla, Danila Azzolina |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2020 |
| Předmět: |
2019-20 coronavirus outbreak
medicine.medical_specialty Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) Epidemiology Pneumonia Viral Short Report Socio-culturale 030204 cardiovascular system & hematology Generalised additive model Disease Outbreaks Betacoronavirus 03 medical and health sciences 0302 clinical medicine Economica Pandemic Humans Medicine 030212 general & internal medicine Pandemics Estimation Models Statistical COVID-19 Italy PUBLIC HEALTH SARS-CoV-2 business.industry Public health Public Health Environmental and Occupational Health Outbreak Ambientale Bayes Theorem Hospitalization Epidemic outbreak Coronavirus Infections business Forecasting Demography |
| Zdroj: | Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health |
| ISSN: | 1470-2738 0143-005X |
| DOI: | 10.1136/jech-2020-214209 |
| Popis: | BackgroundVeneto is one of the first Italian regions where the COVID-19 outbreak started spreading. Containment measures were approved soon thereafter. The present study aims at providing a first look at the impact of the containment measures on the outbreak progression in the Veneto region, Italy.MethodsA Bayesian changepoint analysis was used to identify the changing speed of the epidemic curve. Then, a piecewise polynomial model was considered to fit the data in the first period before the detected changepoint. In this time interval, that is, the weeks from 27 February to 12 March, a quadratic growth was identified by a generalised additive model (GAM). Finally, the model was used to generate the projection of the expected number of hospitalisations at 2 weeks based on the epidemic speed before the changepoint. Such estimates were then compared with the actual outbreak behaviour.ResultsThe comparison between the observed and predicted hospitalisation curves highlights a slowdown on the total COVID-19 hospitalisations after the onset of containment measures. The estimated daily slowdown effect of the epidemic growth is estimated as 78 hospitalisations per day as of 27 March (95% CI 75 to 81).ConclusionsThe containment strategies seem to have positively impacted the progression of the COVID-19 epidemic outbreak in Veneto. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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