Optimization of Parameters in the Generalized Extreme-Value Distribution Type 1 for Three Populations Using Harmonic Search
| Autor: | Luis Gabriel Garcia-Valenzuela, Juan Pablo Molina-Aguilar, Alfonso Gutierrez-Lopez, Jose A. Raynal-Villasenor |
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| Rok vydání: | 2019 |
| Předmět: |
Atmospheric Science
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences 0208 environmental biotechnology flow frequency analysis Scale (descriptive set theory) 02 engineering and technology lcsh:QC851-999 Environmental Science (miscellaneous) 01 natural sciences EV1 Position (vector) maximum annual flow Statistics Extreme value theory Physics::Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics 0105 earth and related environmental sciences Mathematics mixed Gumbel three populations Gumbel distribution Univariate Generalized Extreme-Value Distribution (GEV) harmonic search Function (mathematics) 020801 environmental engineering Harmonic Generalized extreme value distribution Probability distribution lcsh:Meteorology. Climatology |
| Zdroj: | Atmosphere Volume 10 Issue 5 Atmosphere, Vol 10, Iss 5, p 257 (2019) |
| ISSN: | 2073-4433 |
| DOI: | 10.3390/atmos10050257 |
| Popis: | Due to its geographical position, Mexico is exposed annually to cold fronts and tropical cyclones, registering extremely high values that are atypical in the series of maximum annual flows. Univariate mixed probability distribution functions have been developed based on the theory of extreme values, which require techniques to determine their parameters. Therefore, this paper explores a function that considers three populations to analyze maximum annual flows. According to the structure of the Generalized Extreme-Value Distribution (GEV), the simultaneous definition of nine parameters is required: three of location, three of scale, and three of probability of occurrence. Thus, the use of a meta-heuristic technique was proposed (harmonic search). The precision of the adjustment was increased through the optimization of the parameters, and with it came a reduction in the uncertainty of the forecast, particularly for cyclonic events. It is concluded that the use of an extreme value distribution (Type I) structured with three populations and accompanied by the technique of harmonic search improves the performance in respect to classic techniques for the determination of its parameters. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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