Sources of error in road safety scheme evaluation: a quantified comparison of current methods
| Autor: | M. J. Maher, W. M. Hirst, Linda Mountain |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2004 |
| Předmět: |
Risk
Engineering Flow (psychology) Poison control Human Factors and Ergonomics Transport engineering Reduction (complexity) Regression toward the mean Statistics Humans City Planning skin and connective tissue diseases Safety Risk Reliability and Quality Models Statistical business.industry Principal (computer security) Accidents Traffic Public Health Environmental and Occupational Health food and beverages Bayes Theorem Confounding Factors Epidemiologic Regression analysis Traffic flow sense organs Safety Current (fluid) business |
| Zdroj: | Accident Analysis & Prevention. 36:705-715 |
| ISSN: | 0001-4575 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.aap.2003.05.003 |
| Popis: | This paper considers the various factors that can have a confounding effect in the evaluation of road safety schemes and examines the extent to which current methods can effectively deal with these. A modification to current methods is proposed which allows the reduction in accidents attributable to risk and flow changes to be separately evaluated. Data are presented to demonstrate the relative magnitudes of the various sources of error. It is shown that a principal source of error is normally regression-to-mean (RTM) and a correction for this effect should always be applied. Changes in traffic flow can also result in substantial accident changes and it is important to establish whether flow changes have occurred and if they are attributable to the effect of the scheme. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
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