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When participating in the Scandinavian wholesale energy markets with intermittent PV power, imbalances between market-committed and actual energy generation need to be economically accounted for in the imbalance settlement. The market-committed energy is based on forecasts issued at specific timestamps defined by the market. The economic value of such forecasts can be quantified for the past, present and future energy market regulations by comparing the achieved income using perfect forecasts to the income with imperfect forecasts. Differences between these regulations include changing from 60 min to 15 min market intervals, and from a dual-price to a single-price imbalance settlement structure. PV power production data were modelled from meteorological measurements carried out at 11 locations in each of the Nord Pool bidding areas. Forecasts generated from a smart persistence model and a more sophisticated numerical weather prediction (NWP) model were compared for these locations, and the value of these forecasts was estimated from historical market data for each of the 11 bidding areas. The results show that the estimated income, and income losses, are dependent on the electricity mix of the bidding areas. In addition, the transition from the dual-price to the single-price imbalance settlement structure reduces the value of providing accurate forecasts. Moreover, the added incentive to provide accurate forecasts when settling the markets and imbalances on 15 min instead of 60 min intervals is negligible with the single-price imbalance settlement. Finally, the results show that intraday trading is generally beneficial for PV power plants in Scandinavia. |
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