On the management of retirement age indexed to life expectancy: a scenario analysis of the Italian longevity experience
| Autor: | Maria Russolillo, Rosaria Simone, Mariarosaria Coppola |
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| Přispěvatelé: | Coppola, Mariarosaria, Russolillo, Maria, Simone, Rosaria |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2020 |
| Předmět: |
Pension
Indexed retirement system Actuarial science Model risk Longevity risk Life expectancy 05 social sciences 01 natural sciences Social security Gender gap Pension cash flow Indexed pension system 010104 statistics & probability 0502 economics and business Economics Cash flow Scenario analysis 050207 economics 0101 mathematics Finance Retirement age |
| Popis: | Purpose This paper aims to measure the financial impact on social security system of a recently proposed indexation mechanism for retirement age by considering the Italian longevity experience. The analysis is motivated by the progressive increase in life expectancy at advanced age, which is rapidly bringing to the fore noticeable socio-economic consequences in most industrialized countries. Among those, the impact on National Social Security systems is particularly relevant if people live longer than expected; this will lead to greater financial exposure for pension providers. Design/methodology/approach Referring to the Italian population for illustrative purposes, the authors contemplate different scenarios for mortality projection methods and for the implementation of pension age shift while accounting for gender and cohort gaps and model risk. Synthetic indicators to measure the impact of the indexation mechanism on social security system are introduced on the basis of pension cash flows. Findings An indexation policy that manages gender gap while adjusting retirement age for varying life expectancy is proposed. As a result, sustainability of public retirement expenditure is improved. Originality/value The paper is a concise scenario analysis of the reduction of costs and risks that pension providers would have if the system resorted to link retirement age to life expectancy. The ideas fostered by the paper follow a recent proposal of the Authors on a flexible retirement scheme that deals with model risk for mortality projection and accounts for gender gap in mortality rates. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
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