Global carbon budget 2014

Autor: Le Quéré, Corinne, Moriarty, Róisín, Andrew, Robbie M., Peters, Glen P., Ciais, Philippe, Friedlingstein, Pierre, Jones, Stephen D., Sitch, Stephen, Tans, Pieter P., Arneth, Almut, Boden, Thomas A., Bopp, Laurent, Bozec, Yann, Canadell, Josep G., Chevallier, Frédéric, Cosca, Catherine E., Harris, Ian, Hoppema, Mario, Houghton, Richard A., House, J., Jain, Atul K., Johannessen, Truls, Kato, Etsushi, Keeling, Ralph F., Kitidis, Vassilis, Klein Goldewijk, Kees, Koven, C., Landa, Camilla S., Landschützer, Peter, Lenton, Andrew, Lima, Ivan D., Marland, Gregg, Mathis, Jeremy T., Metzl, Nicolas, Nojiri, Yukihiro, Olsen, Are, Ono, Tsuneo, Peters, Wouter, Pfeil, Benjamin, Poulter, Benjamin, Raupach, M. R., Regnier, P., Rödenbeck, Christian, Saito, Shu, Salisbury, Joseph E., Schuster, Ute, Schwinger, Jörg, Séférian, Roland, Segschneider, Joachim, Steinhoff, Tobias, Stocker, Benjamin D., Sutton, Adrienne J., Takahashi, Taro, Tilbrook, Bronte, Van Der Werf, Guido R., Viovy, Nicolas, Wang, Y.-P., Wanninkhof, Rik H., Wiltshire, Andrew J., Zeng, N., Lefèvre, Nathalie
Přispěvatelé: Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia [Norwich] (UEA), Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research and School of Environmental Sciences, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris-Saclay-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), University of Exeter, College of Life and Environmental Sciences [Exeter], NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT), Division technique INSU/SDU (DTI), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory [Seattle] (PMEL), Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Department of Bentho-pelagic processes, Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung (AWI), University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign [Urbana], University of Illinois System, Geophysical Institute [Bergen], University of Bergen (UIB), The Institute of Applied Energy (IAE), Plymouth Marine Laboratory (PML), Plymouth Marine Laboratory, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics [ETH Zürich] (IBP), Department of Environmental Systems Science [ETH Zürich] (D-USYS), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zürich [Zürich] (ETH Zürich)-Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zürich [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Appalachian State University, University, Équipe CO2 (E-CO2), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN), National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST), Centre for Isotope Research [Groningen] (CIO), University of Groningen [Groningen], Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB), Max-Planck-Institut für Biogeochemie (MPI-BGC), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR), Department of Biological Sciences [Bergen] (BIO), University of Bergen (UIB)-University of Bergen (UIB), Groupe d'étude de l'atmosphère météorologique (CNRM-GAME), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research [Kiel] (GEOMAR), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML), Met Office Hadley Centre (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science [College Park] (AOSC), University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System-University of Maryland System, Austral, Boréal et Carbone (ABC)
Rok vydání: 2014
Předmět:
Zdroj: Earth System Science Data Discussions
Earth System Science Data : Papers in open discussion
Earth System Science Data : Papers in open discussion, Copernicus Publications, 2014, 7 (2), pp.521-610. ⟨10.5194/ESSDD-7-521-2014⟩
EPIC3Earth System Science Data Discussions, Copernicus Publications, 7(2), pp. 521-610, ISSN: 1866-3591
ISSN: 1866-3591
Popis: Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe datasets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from Land-Use Change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent Dynamic Global Vegetation Models forced by observed climate, CO2 and land cover change (some including nitrogen-carbon interactions). We compare the variability and mean land and ocean fluxes to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2004–2013), EFF was 8.9 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, ELUC 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.3 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 2.9 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1. For year 2013 alone, EFF grew to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, 2.3% above 2012, contining the growth trend in these emissions. ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 5.4 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 and SLAND was 2.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1. GATM was high in 2013 reflecting a steady increase in EFF and smaller and opposite changes between SOCEAN and SLAND compared to the past decade (2004–2013). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 395.31 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2013. We estimate that EFF will increase by 2.5% (1.3–3.5%) to 10.1 ± 0.6 GtC in 2014 (37.0 ± 2.2 GtCO2 yr−1), 65% above emissions in 1990, based on projections of World Gross Domestic Product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2014, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 545 ± 55 GtC (2000 ± 200 GtCO2) for 1870–2014, about 75% from EFF and 25% from ELUC. This paper documents changes in the methods and datasets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this living dataset (Le Quéré et al., 2013, 2014). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2014). Italic font highlights significant methodological changes and results compared to the Le Quéré et al. (2014) manuscript that accompanies the previous version of this living data.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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