| Popis: |
Background: The prognostic risk factors for primary central nervous system (CNS) germ cell tumors (GCTs) in children and adolescents remain controversial. This study aimed to develop and validate a nomogram that predicts 5-and 10-year survival rates for CNS GCTs in children and adolescents.Methods: Pediatric with intracranial GCTs in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database from 2000 to 2018 were analyzed. All GCTs children were randomly divided into the development group (70%) and the validation group (30%). The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) was used to screen the characteristic variables, and the 5- and 10-year survival probability nomogram was constructed. The accuracy of the nomogram was evaluated by consistency index (C-index), calibration plot, receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), decision curve analysis (DCA) and survival curve.Results: We identified 819 cases of CNS GCTs in children. Three variables (histology, site and size) were selected by lasso regression to construct the nomogram. The C-index of the development group and verification group is 0.744 and 0.759. According to the time points of 5 and 10 years, the area under the curve of the development group is 0.753 and 0.696, and the verification set is 0.787 and 0.718. The results show that the prognostic nomogram developed by us has good accuracy.Conclusions: This is the first prognostic nomogram of CNS GCTs in children and adolescents. It can effectively predict the 5- and 10-year survival probability of children. It provides a useful prediction tool for clinicians. |
