Analogue adjustment of Global Climate Models applied to glacier surface energy balance modeling
| Autor: | Autin, P., Gouttevin, I., Menegoz, M., Santolaria-Otin, M. |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2023 |
| Zdroj: | XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) |
| DOI: | 10.57757/iugg23-0250 |
| Popis: | This study assesses the applicability of the Analogue statistical adjustment method on global climate models to simulate the surface energy balance of mountain glaciers at the hourly scale. The method consists in finding observed synoptic conditions which are similar to Global Climate Model projections, in order to construct scenarios consistent with future climate but based on recent-past observations. The identification of the analogue synoptic condition allows to select observed meteorological conditions of the analogue day and hence ensure physical consistency between the six meteorological variables of the surface energy balance and mass forcing: temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, wind speed, incoming short and longwave radiation. First, the validity of the method is evaluated by generating hourly analogue scenarios under the current climate and comparing these to the observations. The inter-variable physical consistency is investigated by forcing a surface energy balance model with both observations and analogue scenarios and comparing the resulting components of the surface energy and mass balances. This enables the identification of constraints needed to refine the Analogue method for glacier modeling applications. Finally, considering the limitation of the method occurring when future climate differs too much from the present one, an assessment of the time horizon of the validity of the analogue method in different high-mountain environments is given. The 28th IUGG General Assembly (IUGG2023) (Berlin 2023) |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
|