Modeling of the Trajectory of the Level Fluctuations in Lake Naroch
| Autor: | Ivan Kirvel, Alexander A. Volchak, Sergey Parfomuk |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2016 |
| Předmět: |
Polynomial regression
Sequence Geography (General) recent past lake naroch belarus Meteorology Component (thermodynamics) 0208 environmental biotechnology lake level changes 02 engineering and technology 010501 environmental sciences Type (model theory) Residual 01 natural sciences Regression 020801 environmental engineering modelling Geography trajectory Trajectory General Earth and Planetary Sciences G1-922 Statistical physics 0105 earth and related environmental sciences |
| Zdroj: | Quaestiones Geographicae, Vol 35, Iss 1, Pp 57-62 (2016) |
| ISSN: | 2081-6383 |
| Popis: | As a result of the conducted investigations of the level fluctuations in lake naroch the initial data are divided into 3 components: a polynomial regression that makes it possible to find out an independent on time law of trajectory, a periodic component of sinusoidal type and a residual sequence of independent random quantities. Modeling of the trajectory fluctuations is based on the deterministic part, consisting of the regression of the 8th order and periodic component, and also the random part, consisting of independent equally distributed quantities. Using this model it can be modeled the trajectory of the level fluctuations in lake naroch. The modeled trajectory by 200 years long demonstrated the probability of exceeding of maximum annual level, equal 1 per cent. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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