Verification of Red Flag Warnings across the Northwestern U.S. as Forecasts of Large Fire Occurrence
| Autor: | Nicholas J. Nauslar, John T. Abatzoglou, Alistair M. S. Smith, Joshua Clark |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2020 |
| Předmět: |
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
Poison control fire danger forecasting Environmental Science (miscellaneous) 01 natural sciences Fire weather Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous) medicine Safety Risk Reliability and Quality 0105 earth and related environmental sciences 040101 forestry Warning system business.industry Environmental resource management Forestry forecast verification 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences Building and Construction Limiting National weather service Forecast verification lcsh:QC1-999 0401 agriculture forestry and fisheries Early warning system Dryness Environmental science medicine.symptom business Safety Research lcsh:Physics fire weather |
| Zdroj: | Fire Volume 3 Issue 4 Fire, Vol 3, Iss 60, p 60 (2020) |
| ISSN: | 2571-6255 |
| DOI: | 10.3390/fire3040060 |
| Popis: | Red Flag Warnings (RFWs) issued by the National Weather Service in the United States (U.S.) are an important early warning system for fire potential based on forecasts of critical fire weather that promote increased fire activity, including the occurrence of large fires. However, verification of RFWs as they relate to fire activity is lacking, thereby limiting means to improve forecasts as well as increase value for end users. We evaluated the efficacy of RFWs as forecasts of large fire occurrence for the Northwestern U.S.&mdash RFWs were shown to have widespread significant skill and yielded an overall 124% relative improvement in forecasting large fire occurrences than a reference forecast. We further demonstrate that the skill of RFWs is significantly higher for lightning-ignited large fires than for human-ignited fires and for forecasts issued during periods of high fuel dryness than those issued in the absence of high fuel dryness. The results of this first verification study of RFWs related to actualized fire activity lay the groundwork for future efforts towards improving the relevance and usefulness of RFWs and other fire early warning systems to better serve the fire community and public. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
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