Confidence biases and learning among intuitive Bayesians
| Autor: | Muniza Askari, Marco Gazel, Louis Lévy-Garboua |
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| Přispěvatelé: | Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en analyse des organisations (CIRANO), Université du Québec à Montréal = University of Québec in Montréal (UQAM), Paris School of Economics (PSE), École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (UP1)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne (CES), Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (UP1)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2017 |
| Předmět: |
FOS: Computer and information sciences
Computer science Dunning–Kruger effect media_common.quotation_subject Bayesian probability General Decision Sciences Conservatism Bayesian inference experimental game 050105 experimental psychology Confidence biases Task (project management) Contrarian illusory signals Double or quits Arts and Humanities (miscellaneous) [MATH.MATH-ST]Mathematics [math]/Statistics [math.ST] Perception 0502 economics and business FOS: Mathematics Developmental and Educational Psychology Learning 0501 psychology and cognitive sciences 050207 economics Applied Psychology media_common Other Statistics (stat.OT) Probability (math.PR) 05 social sciences Contrarian Intuitive-Bayesian General Social Sciences [SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance Computer Science Applications [MATH.MATH-PR]Mathematics [math]/Probability [math.PR] Statistics - Other Statistics Doubt Hard–easy effect General Economics Econometrics and Finance Mathematics - Probability Cognitive psychology |
| Zdroj: | Theory and Decision Theory and Decision, Springer Verlag, 2017 |
| ISSN: | 0040-5833 1573-7187 |
| Popis: | We design a double-or-quits game to compare the speed of learning one's specific ability with the speed of rising confidence as the task gets increasingly difficult. We find that people on average learn to be overconfident faster than they learn their true ability and we present an intuitive-Bayesian model of confidence which integrates confidence biases and learning. Uncertainty about one's true ability to perform a task in isolation can be responsible for large and stable confidence biases, namely limited discrimination, the hard--easy effect, the Dunning--Kruger effect, conservative learning from experience and the overprecision phenomenon (without underprecision) if subjects act as Bayesian learners who rely only on sequentially perceived performance cues and contrarian illusory signals induced by doubt. Moreover, these biases are likely to persist since the Bayesian aggregation of past information consolidates the accumulation of errors and the perception of contrarian illusory signals generates conservatism and under-reaction to events. Taken together, these two features may explain why intuitive Bayesians make systematically wrong predictions of their own performance. Theory and Decision, Springer Verlag, 2017 |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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