Comparing different meteorological ensemble approaches: hydrological predictions for a flood episode in Northern Italy
| Autor: | Mario Marcello Miglietta, C. Marsigli, A. Morgillo, T. Diomede, Silvio Davolio, Andrea Montani |
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| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2018 |
| Předmět: |
Atmospheric Science
Meteorology Severe weather Flood myth Ensemble forecasting Ecological Modeling Mesoscale meteorology lcsh:QC851-999 Pollution lcsh:QC1-999 Northern italy Geophysics Climatology Weather Research and Forecasting Model Environmental science lcsh:Q lcsh:Meteorology. Climatology Precipitation lcsh:Science North American Mesoscale Model lcsh:Physics |
| Zdroj: | Advances in Science and Research, Vol 8, Pp 33-37 (2012) Advances in science and research 8 (2012): 33–37. doi:10.5194/asr-8-33-2012 info:cnr-pdr/source/autori:Davolio, Silvio ;Diomede, Tommaso ; Marsigli, Chiara ; Miglietta, Mario Marcello; Montani, Andrea ; Morgillo, Antonella/titolo:Comparing different meteorological ensemble approaches: hydrological predictions for a flood episode in Northern Italy/doi:10.5194%2Fasr-8-33-2012/rivista:Advances in science and research (Print)/anno:2012/pagina_da:33/pagina_a:37/intervallo_pagine:33–37/volume:8 |
| ISSN: | 1992-0636 |
| Popis: | Within the framework of coupled meteorological-hydrological predictions, this study aims at comparing two high-resolution meteorological ensembles, covering short and medium range. The two modelling systems have similar characteristics, as almost the same number of members, the model resolution (about 7 km), the driving ECMWF global ensemble prediction system, but are obtained through different methodologies: the former is a multi-model ensemble, based on three mesoscale models (BOLAM, COSMO, and WRF), while the latter follows a single-model approach, based on COSMO-LEPS (Limited-area Ensemble Prediction System), the operational ensemble forecasting system developed within the COSMO consortium. Precipitation forecasts are evaluated in terms of hydrological response, after coupling the meteorological models with a distributed rainfall-runoff model (TOPKAPI) to simulate the discharge of the Reno river (Northern Italy), for a severe weather episode. Although a single case study does not allow for robust and definite conclusions, the comparison among different predictions points out a remarkably better performance of mesoscale model ensemble forecasts compared to global ones. Moreover, the multi-model ensemble outperforms the single model approach. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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