Spring Land Temperature in Tibetan Plateau and Global-Scale Summer Precipitation: Initialization and Improved Prediction

Autor: Yongkang Xue, Ismaila Diallo, Aaron A. Boone, Tandong Yao, Yang Zhang, Xubin Zeng, J. David Neelin, William K. M. Lau, Yan Pan, Ye Liu, Xiaoduo Pan, Qi Tang, Peter J. van Oevelen, Tomonori Sato, Myung-Seo Koo, Stefano Materia, Chunxiang Shi, Jing Yang, Constantin Ardilouze, Zhaohui Lin, Xin Qi, Tetsu Nakamura, Subodh K. Saha, Retish Senan, Yuhei Takaya, Hailan Wang, Hongliang Zhang, Mei Zhao, Hara Prasad Nayak, Qiuyu Chen, Jinming Feng, Michael A. Brunke, Tianyi Fan, Songyou Hong, Paulo Nobre, Daniele Peano, Yi Qin, Frederic Vitart, Shaocheng Xie, Yanling Zhan, Daniel Klocke, Ruby Leung, Xin Li, Michael Ek, Weidong Guo, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Qing Bao, Sin Chan Chou, Patricia de Rosnay, Yanluan Lin, Yuejian Zhu, Yun Qian, Ping Zhao, Jianping Tang, Xin-Zhong Liang, Jinkyu Hong, Duoying Ji, Zhenming Ji, Yuan Qiu, Shiori Sugimoto, Weicai Wang, Kun Yang, Miao Yu
Přispěvatelé: Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Rok vydání: 2022
Předmět:
Zdroj: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2022, ⟨10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0270.1⟩
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol 103, iss 12
ISSN: 1520-0477
0003-0007
DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-21-0270.1
Popis: Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) precipitation prediction in boreal spring and summer months, which contains a significant number of high-signal events, is scientifically challenging and prediction skill has remained poor for years. Tibetan Plateau (TP) spring observed surface ­temperatures show a lag correlation with summer precipitation in several remote regions, but current global land–atmosphere coupled models are unable to represent this behavior due to significant errors in producing observed TP surface temperatures. To address these issues, the Global Energy and Water Exchanges (GEWEX) program launched the “Impact of Initialized Land Temperature and Snowpack on Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction” (LS4P) initiative as a community effort to test the impact of land temperature in high-mountain regions on S2S prediction by climate models: more than 40 institutions worldwide are participating in this project. After using an innovative new land state initialization approach based on observed surface 2-m temperature over the TP in the LS4P experiment, results from a multimodel ensemble provide evidence for a causal relationship in the observed association between the Plateau spring land temperature and summer precipitation over several regions across the world through teleconnections. The influence is underscored by an out-of-phase oscillation between the TP and Rocky Mountain surface temperatures. This study reveals for the first time that high-mountain land temperature could be a substantial source of S2S precipitation predictability, and its effect is probably as large as ocean surface temperature over global “hotspot” regions identified here; the ensemble means in some “hotspots” produce more than 40% of the observed anomalies. This LS4P approach should stimulate more follow-on explorations.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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