Water Budgets of Managed Forests in Northeast Germany under Climate Change—Results from a Model Study on Forest Monitoring Sites
| Autor: | Rainer Hentschel, Alexander Russ, Daniel Ziche, Jan Martin, Winfried Riek |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: |
ICP Forests
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences 0208 environmental biotechnology evapotranspiration Climate change 02 engineering and technology drought 01 natural sciences lcsh:Technology lcsh:Chemistry Water balance Evapotranspiration General Materials Science CMIP5 Precipitation Instrumentation lcsh:QH301-705.5 0105 earth and related environmental sciences Transpiration Fluid Flow and Transfer Processes Coupled model intercomparison project lcsh:T Process Chemistry and Technology General Engineering Representative Concentration Pathways lcsh:QC1-999 020801 environmental engineering Computer Science Applications soil hydrological model RCP lcsh:Biology (General) lcsh:QD1-999 lcsh:TA1-2040 Climatology LWF-BROOK90 Environmental science Climate model soil moisture lcsh:Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) lcsh:Physics |
| Zdroj: | Applied Sciences, Vol 11, Iss 2403, p 2403 (2021) Applied Sciences Volume 11 Issue 5 |
| ISSN: | 2076-3417 |
| Popis: | To develop measures to reduce the vulnerability of forests to drought, it is necessary to estimate specific water balances in sites and to estimate their development with climate change scenarios. We quantified the water balance of seven forest monitoring sites in northeast Germany for the historical time period 1961–2019, and for climate change projections for the time period 2010–2100. We used the LWF-BROOK90 hydrological model forced with historical data, and bias-adjusted data from two models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) downscaled with regional climate models under the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5. Site-specific monitoring data were used to give a realistic model input and to calibrate and validate the model. The results revealed significant trends (evapotranspiration, dry days (actual/potential transpiration < 0.7)) toward drier conditions within the historical time period and demonstrate the extreme conditions of 2018 and 2019. Under RCP8.5, both models simulate an increase in evapotranspiration and dry days. The response of precipitation to climate change is ambiguous, with increasing precipitation with one model. Under RCP2.6, both models do not reveal an increase in drought in 2071–2100 compared to 1990–2019. The current temperature increase fits RCP8.5 simulations, suggesting that this scenario is more realistic than RCP2.6. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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