The Faustmann model under storm risk and price uncertainty: A case study of European beech in Northwestern France

Autor: Hanitra Rakotoarison, Patrice Loisel
Přispěvatelé: ONF, RDI department, Office National des Forêts (ONF), Mathématiques, Informatique et STatistique pour l'Environnement et l'Agronomie (MISTEA), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro), Economic, Human and Social Science Researchers Network of Ecofor : ECOFOR 2012-24, Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2017
Předmět:
Economics and Econometrics
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
Sociology and Political Science
Natural resource economics
Forest management
gestion prévisionnelle
Management
Monitoring
Policy and Law
01 natural sciences
forest
Fagus sylvatica
Environmental protection
forêt
Economics
Wood industry
Beech
0105 earth and related environmental sciences
040101 forestry
wood industry
biology
modèle économique
Global warming
storm damage
risk assessment
Forestry
Storm
04 agricultural and veterinary sciences
forest policy
15. Life on land
biology.organism_classification
Natural resource
price uncertainty
13. Climate action
0401 agriculture
forestry
and fisheries
Economic model
gestion des forêts
forecasting management
France
[MATH.MATH-OC]Mathematics [math]/Optimization and Control [math.OC]
évaluation des risques
risks
outil d'aide à la décision
economic model
Zdroj: Forest Policy and Economics
Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, 2017, 81, pp.30-37. ⟨10.1016/j.forpol.2017.04.012⟩
ISSN: 1389-9341
DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2017.04.012⟩
Popis: International, economic and environmental contexts in this century are strongly affected by risks and uncertainties. Due to the long-term nature of forest investment, forest managers must integrate risks and uncertainties into their decisions. Our objective is to build a decision support tool to optimize forest management under multiple risks: extreme events and price variations. Our method integrates, into an economic model, different types of models on forest growth, price functions, predicted storm intensity and intervals, and damage functions. A numerical simulation applied to European beech (Fagus sylvatica) in Northwestern France shows that price variation as between 1974 and 2016 produces higher economic loss than does storm damage. We conclude on the need to concentrate forest policy on the development of new technologies and wood industry practices to increase the value of this natural resource. However, future climate change may well influence storm frequency and intensity, and this places limits on our conclusions.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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