Simulating the Effects of Sea Level Rise on the Resilience and Migration of Tidal Wetlands along the Hudson River

Autor: Magdeline Laba, Nava M. Tabak, Sacha Spector
Rok vydání: 2016
Předmět:
0106 biological sciences
Topography
Marsh
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
Marine and Aquatic Sciences
lcsh:Medicine
Fresh Water
Wetland
Tides
01 natural sciences
Tidal river
lcsh:Science
Atlantic Ocean
Multidisciplinary
geography.geographical_feature_category
Animal Behavior
Ecology
Physics
Habitats
Geophysics
Salt marsh
Physical Sciences
Estuaries
Research Article
Freshwater Environments
Marshes
Rivers
Surface Water
Low marsh
High marsh
0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Hydrology
Landforms
Behavior
geography
010604 marine biology & hydrobiology
Ecology and Environmental Sciences
lcsh:R
Aquatic Environments
Biology and Life Sciences
Tidal irrigation
Geomorphology
Estuary
Tidal Waves
Models
Theoretical
Bodies of Water
geography.body_of_water
Wetlands
Earth Sciences
Environmental science
Animal Migration
lcsh:Q
Zoology
Zdroj: PLoS ONE, Vol 11, Iss 4, p e0152437 (2016)
PLoS ONE
ISSN: 1932-6203
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0152437
Popis: Sea Level Rise (SLR) caused by climate change is impacting coastal wetlands around the globe. Due to their distinctive biophysical characteristics and unique plant communities, freshwater tidal wetlands are expected to exhibit a different response to SLR as compared with the better studied salt marshes. In this study we employed the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM), which simulates regional- or local-scale changes in tidal wetland habitats in response to SLR, and adapted it for application in a freshwater-dominated tidal river system, the Hudson River Estuary. Using regionally-specific estimated ranges of SLR and accretion rates, we produced simulations for a spectrum of possible future wetland distributions and quantified the projected wetland resilience, migration or loss in the HRE through the end of the 21st century. Projections of total wetland extent and migration were more strongly determined by the rate of SLR than the rate of accretion. Surprisingly, an increase in net tidal wetland area was projected under all scenarios, with newly-formed tidal wetlands expected to comprise at least 33% of the HRE’s wetland area by year 2100. Model simulations with high rates of SLR and/or low rates of accretion resulted in broad shifts in wetland composition with widespread conversion of high marsh habitat to low marsh, tidal flat or permanent inundation. Wetland expansion and resilience were not equally distributed through the estuary, with just three of 48 primary wetland areas encompassing >50% of projected new wetland by the year 2100. Our results open an avenue for improving predictive models of the response of freshwater tidal wetlands to sea level rise, and broadly inform the planning of conservation measures of this critical resource in the Hudson River Estuary.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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