Expectation Formation Following Large, Unexpected Shocks

Autor:	Tucker McElroy, Scott R. Baker, Xuguang Simon Sheng
Rok vydání:	2020
Předmět:	Economics and Econometrics Matching (statistics) Stylized fact 05 social sciences Rigidity (psychology) Affect (psychology) Expectation formation Set (abstract data type) 0502 economics and business Econometrics Economics 050207 economics Set (psychology) Natural disaster Social Sciences (miscellaneous) 050205 econometrics
Zdroj:	The Review of Economics and Statistics. 102:287-303
ISSN:	1530-9142 0034-6535
DOI:	10.1162/rest_a_00826
Popis:	By matching a large database of individual forecaster data with the universe of sizable natural disasters across 54 countries, we identify a set of new stylized facts: (i) forecasters are persistently heterogeneous in how often they issue or revise a forecast; (ii) information rigidity declines significantly following large, unexpected natural disaster shocks; (iii) the response of forecast disagreement displays interesting patterns: attentive forecasters tend to move away from the previous consensus following a disaster while the opposite is true for inattentive forecasters. We develop a learning model that captures the two channels through which natural disaster shocks affect expectation formation: attention effect { the visibly large shocks induce immediate and synchronized updating of information for inattentive agents, and uncertainty effect { the occurrence of those shocks generates increased uncertainty among attentive agents.
Databáze:	OpenAIRE
Externí odkaz:	https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::68cc0beaf4f7c863b5b1bd1113cf3ad5 https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00826 Zobrazit plný text záznamu Plný text ve formátu PDF Plný text ve formátu HTML
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