Mapping Potential Amplification and Transmission Hotspots for MERS-CoV, Kenya

Autor: Joshua Kimutai, Joseph Matere, K. J. Z. Juma Ngeiywa, Folorunso Oludayo Fasina, Austine Bitek, Astrid Tripodi, Yilma J. Makonnen, Gabriel Rugalema, Subhash Morzaria, Stephen Gikonyo, Juan Lubroth, Tabitha Kimani, Stella Kiambi
Rok vydání: 2018
Předmět:
Zdroj: Ecohealth
ISSN: 1612-9210
1612-9202
Popis: Dromedary camels have been implicated consistently as the source of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) human infections and attention to prevent and control it has focused on camels. To understanding the epidemiological role of camels in the transmission of MERS-CoV, we utilized an iterative empirical process in Geographic Information System (GIS) to identify and qualify potential hotspots for maintenance and circulation of MERS-CoV, and produced risk-based surveillance sites in Kenya. Data on camel population and distribution were used to develop camel density map, while camel farming system was defined using multi-factorial criteria including the agro-ecological zones (AEZs), production and marketing practices. Primary and secondary MERS-CoV seroprevalence data from specific sites were analyzed, and location-based prevalence matching with camel densities was conducted. High-risk convergence points (migration zones, trade routes, camel markets, slaughter slabs) were profiled and frequent cross-border camel movement mapped. Results showed that high camel-dense areas and interaction (markets and migration zones) were potential hotspot for transmission and spread. Cross-border contacts occurred with in-migrated herds at hotspot locations. AEZ differential did not influence risk distribution and plausible risk factors for spatial MERS-CoV hotspots were camel densities, previous cases of MERS-CoV, high seroprevalence and points of camel convergences. Although Kenyan camels are predisposed to MERS-CoV, no shedding is documented to date. These potential hotspots, determined using anthropogenic, system and trade characterizations should guide selection of sampling/surveillance sites, high-risk locations, critical areas for interventions and policy development in Kenya, as well as instigate further virological examination of camels. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1007/s10393-018-1317-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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