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Recent developments in control of highly infectious diseases attempt to improve emergency response efforts by more clearly focusing or targeting response tools according to risk. For example, advances in surveillance testing and sampling deliver their results by more accurately and precisely targeting the population of interest. In this work, targeted implementation of trading zones and vaccination were examined for simulated outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Australia. Trading zones allowing unaffected Australian states to resume exports following an outbreak of FMD were assessed using multiple tools. A Victorian incursion scenario with traditional stamping out and vaccination as control options, was simulated using the AADIS model Version 2.47, to characterise the geographic extent of potential outbreaks, the number of animals infected, and the date of last cull indicating duration of the outbreak. Information on disease spread from the AADIS simulations was then used to identify the boundaries of trading zones for the incursion scenario, in which vaccination with trading zones was found to further reduce disease impacts relative to stamping out alone with trading zones. The number of animals culled due to disease provided supply shocks for stamping out alone and vaccinate-to-retain, while the number of vaccinated animals was added to the number of animals culled due to disease for the supply shock of vaccinate-to-remove. The day of last cull was combined with historical FMD trade recovery and Australian export data to estimate the share of Australian exports that would be embargoed under trading zones. The market impacts - changes in equilibrium quantities and prices - of the supply shock, trading zones, and consumer reactions - were simulated within ABARES' AgEmissions partial equilibrium model of Australian agriculture. For this simulated large outbreak, where vaccinate-to-remove was utilised along with trading zones, producer losses were reduced by AUD 4 billion in present value terms over 10 years estimated at a 7% discount rate (PV10,7%) compared to an outbreak where stamping out alone is applied with trading zones. Introducing FMD virus risk mitigation measures for wool to further target trading zones reduced the economic impacts by an additional AUD 3.6 billion (PV10,7%). Outbreak response cost savings and additional potential costs under vaccinate-to-retain with trading zones were also compared to the vaccinate-to-remove control with trading zones. Results emphasised the importance of outbreak characteristics in determining trading zones and targeting of vaccination. Economic analyses identified how additional investments in targeting outbreak response is of value to producers. |
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