Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison
| Autor: | Alex C. Ruane, Michael Glotter, Joshua Elliott, Franziska Piontek, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Nikolay Khabarov, James W. Jones, Elke Stehfest, Christoph Müller, Christian Folberth, Hong Yang, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Kenneth J. Boote, Almut Arneth, Delphine Deryng, K. Neumann, Erwin Schmid |
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| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2014 |
| Předmět: |
Crops
Agricultural 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences Nitrogen Climate Change Climate change WASS 010501 environmental sciences Risk Assessment 01 natural sciences Effects of global warming Computer Simulation Ecosystem Agricultural productivity impacts Leerstoelgroep Rurale ontwikkelingssociologie 0105 earth and related environmental sciences 2. Zero hunger Multidisciplinary Food security Geography business.industry Global Climate Impacts: A Cross-Sector Multi-Model Assessment Special Feature Temperature Tropics Agriculture Representative Concentration Pathways dynamics Models Theoretical 15. Life on land PE&RC yield SI Correction Rural Development Sociology 13. Climate action Climatology Environmental science business Forecasting |
| Zdroj: | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 111 (2014) 9 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 111(9), 3268-3273 |
| ISSN: | 0027-8424 |
| Popis: | Here we present the results from an intercomparison of multiple global gridded crop models (GGCMs) within the framework of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. Results indicate strong negative effects of climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes; models that include explicit nitrogen stress project more severe impacts. Across seven GGCMs, five global climate models, and four representative concentration pathways, model agreement on direction of yield changes is found in many major agricultural regions at both low and high latitudes; however, reducing uncertainty in sign of response in mid-latitude regions remains a challenge. Uncertainties related to the representation of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and high temperature effects demonstrated here show that further research is urgently needed to better understand effects of climate change on agricultural production and to devise targeted adaptation strategies. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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