Regional Wind Power Forecasting Based on Smoothing Techniques, With Application to the Spanish Peninsular System
| Autor: | Ismael Sánchez, M. G. Lobo |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2012 |
| Předmět: |
Engineering
Wind power Meteorology business.industry 020209 energy 020208 electrical & electronic engineering Aggregate (data warehouse) Energy Engineering and Power Technology Wind power forecasting 02 engineering and technology Wind speed Power (physics) Data set Operator (computer programming) 0202 electrical engineering electronic engineering information engineering Electrical and Electronic Engineering business Physics::Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics Smoothing |
| Zdroj: | IEEE Transactions on Power Systems |
| ISSN: | 1558-0679 0885-8950 |
| DOI: | 10.1109/tpwrs.2012.2189418 |
| Popis: | Efficient regional forecasting is a critical task for system operators and utilities that manage the generation of various wind farms spread over a region. This paper proposes an aggregate prediction method based on the search for similarities between the current wind speed predictions in a set of locations, and historical wind speed predictions. The aggregate power prediction is constructed from the measures of aggregate power generated during moments from a historical data set in which the wind speed predictions were similar to the current ones, using smoothing techniques. The methodology is applied to the hourly wind power forecast for the Spanish peninsular system, and compared with the predictions obtained with SIPREOLICO, the wind power prediction tool used by the Spanish system operator, and also with the aggregate predictions provided by another forecasting agency. The proposed methodology shows considerably smaller prediction errors than the competitors. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
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