Development and validation of a predictive model for incident type 2 diabetes in middle-aged Mexican adults: the metabolic syndrome cohort
Autor: | Leobardo Sauque-Reyna, José de Jesús Garduño-García, Francisco J. Gómez-Pérez, Carlos A. Aguilar-Salinas, Maria Eugenia Garay-Sevilla, Olimpia Arellano-Campos, Ulices Alvirde, Ivette Cruz-Bautista, Yukiko Ono-Yoshikawa, Rosalba Rojas, María Teresa Tusié-Luna, Donaji V. Gómez-Velasco, Liliana Muñoz-Hernandez, Omar Yaxmehen Bello-Chavolla, Marco Antonio Melgarejo-Hernández, Luis Miguel Gutiérrez-Robledo, Ricardo Choza-Romero, Juan M. Malacara-Hernández, Luz E. Guillén |
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Rok vydání: | 2019 |
Předmět: |
Male
Endocrinology Diabetes and Metabolism Type 2 diabetes Diabetes prediction lcsh:Diseases of the endocrine glands. Clinical endocrinology 0302 clinical medicine Risk Factors Prospective Studies 030212 general & internal medicine Abdominal obesity Metabolic Syndrome education.field_of_study Incidence General Medicine Middle Aged Prognosis Cohort Female medicine.symptom Algorithms Research Article Adult medicine.medical_specialty Diabetes risk Population 030209 endocrinology & metabolism Risk Assessment Prediabetic State 03 medical and health sciences Predictive Value of Tests Internal medicine Glucose Intolerance medicine Humans Obesity Latinos education Mexico Models Statistical lcsh:RC648-665 business.industry México Urbanization Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Impaired fasting glucose medicine.disease Diabetes Mellitus Type 2 Case-Control Studies Metabolic syndrome business Biomarkers Follow-Up Studies |
Zdroj: | BMC Endocrine Disorders, Vol 19, Iss 1, Pp 1-10 (2019) BMC Endocrine Disorders |
ISSN: | 1472-6823 |
Popis: | Background Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in Mexico. Here, we aimed to report incidence rates (IR) of type 2 diabetes in middle-aged apparently-healthy Mexican adults, identify risk factors associated to ID and develop a predictive model for ID in a high-risk population. Methods Prospective 3-year observational cohort, comprised of apparently-healthy adults from urban settings of central Mexico in whom demographic, anthropometric and biochemical data was collected. We evaluated risk factors for ID using Cox proportional hazard regression and developed predictive models for ID. Results We included 7636 participants of whom 6144 completed follow-up. We observed 331 ID cases (IR: 21.9 per 1000 person-years, 95%CI 21.37–22.47). Risk factors for ID included family history of diabetes, age, abdominal obesity, waist-height ratio, impaired fasting glucose (IFG), HOMA2-IR and metabolic syndrome. Early-onset ID was also high (IR 14.77 per 1000 person-years, 95%CI 14.21–15.35), and risk factors included HOMA-IR and IFG. Our ID predictive model included age, hypertriglyceridemia, IFG, hypertension and abdominal obesity as predictors (Dxy = 0.487, c-statistic = 0.741) and had higher predictive accuracy compared to FINDRISC and Cambridge risk scores. Conclusions ID in apparently healthy middle-aged Mexican adults is currently at an alarming rate. The constructed models can be implemented to predict diabetes risk and represent the largest prospective effort for the study metabolic diseases in Latin-American population. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12902-019-0361-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. |
Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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