Development and validation of a predictive model for incident type 2 diabetes in middle-aged Mexican adults: the metabolic syndrome cohort

Autor: Leobardo Sauque-Reyna, José de Jesús Garduño-García, Francisco J. Gómez-Pérez, Carlos A. Aguilar-Salinas, Maria Eugenia Garay-Sevilla, Olimpia Arellano-Campos, Ulices Alvirde, Ivette Cruz-Bautista, Yukiko Ono-Yoshikawa, Rosalba Rojas, María Teresa Tusié-Luna, Donaji V. Gómez-Velasco, Liliana Muñoz-Hernandez, Omar Yaxmehen Bello-Chavolla, Marco Antonio Melgarejo-Hernández, Luis Miguel Gutiérrez-Robledo, Ricardo Choza-Romero, Juan M. Malacara-Hernández, Luz E. Guillén
Rok vydání: 2019
Předmět:
Male
Endocrinology
Diabetes and Metabolism
Type 2 diabetes
Diabetes prediction
lcsh:Diseases of the endocrine glands. Clinical endocrinology
0302 clinical medicine
Risk Factors
Prospective Studies
030212 general & internal medicine
Abdominal obesity
Metabolic Syndrome
education.field_of_study
Incidence
General Medicine
Middle Aged
Prognosis
Cohort
Female
medicine.symptom
Algorithms
Research Article
Adult
medicine.medical_specialty
Diabetes risk
Population
030209 endocrinology & metabolism
Risk Assessment
Prediabetic State
03 medical and health sciences
Predictive Value of Tests
Internal medicine
Glucose Intolerance
medicine
Humans
Obesity
Latinos
education
Mexico
Models
Statistical
lcsh:RC648-665
business.industry
México
Urbanization
Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus
Impaired fasting glucose
medicine.disease
Diabetes Mellitus
Type 2
Case-Control Studies
Metabolic syndrome
business
Biomarkers
Follow-Up Studies
Zdroj: BMC Endocrine Disorders, Vol 19, Iss 1, Pp 1-10 (2019)
BMC Endocrine Disorders
ISSN: 1472-6823
Popis: Background Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in Mexico. Here, we aimed to report incidence rates (IR) of type 2 diabetes in middle-aged apparently-healthy Mexican adults, identify risk factors associated to ID and develop a predictive model for ID in a high-risk population. Methods Prospective 3-year observational cohort, comprised of apparently-healthy adults from urban settings of central Mexico in whom demographic, anthropometric and biochemical data was collected. We evaluated risk factors for ID using Cox proportional hazard regression and developed predictive models for ID. Results We included 7636 participants of whom 6144 completed follow-up. We observed 331 ID cases (IR: 21.9 per 1000 person-years, 95%CI 21.37–22.47). Risk factors for ID included family history of diabetes, age, abdominal obesity, waist-height ratio, impaired fasting glucose (IFG), HOMA2-IR and metabolic syndrome. Early-onset ID was also high (IR 14.77 per 1000 person-years, 95%CI 14.21–15.35), and risk factors included HOMA-IR and IFG. Our ID predictive model included age, hypertriglyceridemia, IFG, hypertension and abdominal obesity as predictors (Dxy = 0.487, c-statistic = 0.741) and had higher predictive accuracy compared to FINDRISC and Cambridge risk scores. Conclusions ID in apparently healthy middle-aged Mexican adults is currently at an alarming rate. The constructed models can be implemented to predict diabetes risk and represent the largest prospective effort for the study metabolic diseases in Latin-American population. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12902-019-0361-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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