Music sentiment and stock returns around the world

Autor: Alexandre Garel, Ivan Indriawan, Adrian Fernandez-Perez, Alex Edmans
Přispěvatelé: Audencia Business School
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2022
Předmět:
Zdroj: Journal of Financial Economics
Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, 2021, ⟨10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.08.014⟩
ISSN: 0304-405X
Popis: This paper introduces a real-time, continuous measure of national sentiment that is language-free and thus comparable globally: the positivity of songs that individuals choose to listen to. This is a direct measure of mood that does not pre-specify certain mood-affecting events nor assume the extent of their impact on investors. We validate our music-based sentiment measure by correlating it with mood swings induced by seasonal factors, weather conditions, and COVID-related restrictions. We find that music sentiment is positively correlated with same-week equity market returns and negatively correlated with next-week returns, consistent with sentiment-induced temporary mispricing. Results also hold under a daily analysis and are stronger when trading restrictions limit arbitrage. Music sentiment also predicts increases in net mutual fund flows, and absolute sentiment precedes a rise in stock market volatility. It is negatively associated with government bond returns, consistent with a flight to safety.
Databáze: OpenAIRE