Collaborative efforts to forecast seasonal influenza in the United States, 2015-2016

Autor: McGowan, Craig J, Biggerstaff, Matthew, Johansson, Michael, Apfeldorf, Karyn M, Ben-Nun, Michal, Brooks, Logan, Convertino, Matteo, Erraguntla, Madhav, Farrow, David C, Freeze, John, Ghosh, Saurav, Hyun, Sangwon, Kandula, Sasikiran, Lega, Joceline, Liu, Yang, Michaud, Nicholas, Morita, Haruka, Niemi, Jarad, Ramakrishnan, Naren, Ray, Evan L, Reich, Nicholas G, Riley, Pete, Shaman, Jeffrey, Tibshirani, Ryan, Vespignani, Alessandro, Zhang, Qian, Reed, Carrie, Influenza Forecasting Working Group
Rok vydání: 2019
Předmět:
0301 basic medicine
U.S
education
lcsh:Medicine
Forecast skill
Influenza season
Article
Disease Outbreaks
Seasonal influenza
Vaccine Related
03 medical and health sciences
0302 clinical medicine
Models
Biodefense
Influenza
Human
Peak intensity
Econometrics
Humans
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
lcsh:Science
health care economics and organizations
Models
Statistical
Multidisciplinary
Ensemble forecasting
Influenza Forecasting Working Group
Prevention
lcsh:R
social sciences
Statistical
Disease control
United States
Influenza
030104 developmental biology
Geography
Emerging Infectious Diseases
Infectious Diseases
Pneumonia & Influenza
population characteristics
lcsh:Q
Seasons
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
U.S
Morbidity
030217 neurology & neurosurgery
Control methods
Human
Zdroj: Scientific reports, vol 9, iss 1
Scientific Reports, Vol 9, Iss 1, Pp 1-13 (2019)
Scientific Reports
Popis: Since 2013, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has hosted an annual influenza season forecasting challenge. The 2015–2016 challenge consisted of weekly probabilistic forecasts of multiple targets, including fourteen models submitted by eleven teams. Forecast skill was evaluated using a modified logarithmic score. We averaged submitted forecasts into a mean ensemble model and compared them against predictions based on historical trends. Forecast skill was highest for seasonal peak intensity and short-term forecasts, while forecast skill for timing of season onset and peak week was generally low. Higher forecast skill was associated with team participation in previous influenza forecasting challenges and utilization of ensemble forecasting techniques. The mean ensemble consistently performed well and outperformed historical trend predictions. CDC and contributing teams will continue to advance influenza forecasting and work to improve the accuracy and reliability of forecasts to facilitate increased incorporation into public health response efforts.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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