Effects of meteorological factors on the incidence of mumps and models for prediction, China
| Autor: | Jia-jia Zhu, Yuan Lv, Ying Liu, Nan Zhou, Xiu-Qin Hong, Wei-tong Li, Tong Li, Yan-Bing Du, Wen-Ting Zha, Ruihua Feng |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2020 |
| Předmět: |
0301 basic medicine
Mainland China Prediction effect Male China Mumps virus ARIMA medicine.disease_cause lcsh:Infectious and parasitic diseases 03 medical and health sciences 0302 clinical medicine Environmental health Incidence trends medicine Humans lcsh:RC109-216 030212 general & internal medicine Autoregressive integrated moving average Child Epidemics Mumps Atmosphere Incidence Outbreak Models Theoretical Prognosis Meteorological factors 030104 developmental biology Infectious Diseases Geography Child Preschool Disease prevention Female ARIMAX Research Article Forecasting |
| Zdroj: | BMC Infectious Diseases BMC Infectious Diseases, Vol 20, Iss 1, Pp 1-11 (2020) |
| ISSN: | 1471-2334 |
| Popis: | Background Mumps is an acute respiratory infectious disease with obvious regional and seasonal differences. Exploring the impact of climate factors on the incidence of mumps and predicting its incidence trend on this basis could effectively control the outbreak and epidemic of mumps. Methods Considering the great differences of climate in the vast territory of China, this study divided the Chinese mainland into seven regions according to the administrative planning criteria, data of Mumps were collected from the China Disease Prevention and Control Information System, ARIMA model and ARIMAX model with meteorological factors were established to predict the incidence of mumps. Results In this study, we found that precipitation, air pressure, temperature, and wind speed had an impact on the incidence of mumps in most regions of China and the incidence of mumps in the north and southwest China was more susceptible to climate factors. Considering meteorological factors, the average relative error of ARIMAX model was 10.87%, which was lower than ARIMA model (15.57%). Conclusions Meteorology factors were the important factors which can affect the incidence of mumps, ARIMAX model with meteorological factors could better simulate and predict the incidence of mumps in China, which has certain reference value for the prevention and control of mumps. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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