The MUSIC Risk score: a simple method for predicting mortality in ambulatory patients with chronic heart failure
| Autor: | Rafael, Vazquez, Antoni, Bayes-Genis, Iwona, Cygankiewicz, Domingo, Pascual-Figal, Lilian, Grigorian-Shamagian, Ricardo, Pavon, Jose R, Gonzalez-Juanatey, José M, Cubero, Luis, Pastor, Jordi, Ordonez-Llanos, Juan, Cinca, Antoni Bayes, de Luna, Mariana, Noguero |
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| Rok vydání: | 2009 |
| Předmět: |
Adult
Male medicine.medical_specialty Adolescent Bundle-Branch Block Heart failure Ventricular tachycardia Sudden death Risk Assessment Young Adult Predictive Value of Tests Internal medicine medicine Humans Natriuretic peptides cardiovascular diseases Prospective Studies Mortality Prospective cohort study Aged Aged 80 and over Heart Failure Framingham Risk Score Ejection fraction business.industry Proportional hazards model Models Cardiovascular Atrial fibrillation Middle Aged medicine.disease Prognosis Chronic Disease cardiovascular system Cardiology Female Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine business |
| Zdroj: | EUROPEAN HEART JOURNAL r-IIB SANT PAU. Repositorio Institucional de Producción Científica del Instituto de Investigación Biomédica Sant Pau instname |
| ISSN: | 1522-9645 0195-668X |
| Popis: | The prognosis of chronic heart failure (CHF) is extremely variable, although generally poor. The purpose of this study was to develop prognostic models for CHF patients. A cohort of 992 consecutive ambulatory CHF patients was prospectively followed for a median of 44 months. Multivariable Cox models were developed to predict all-cause mortality (n = 267), cardiac mortality (primary end-point, n = 213), pump-failure death (n = 123), and sudden death (n = 90). The four final models included several combinations of the same 10 independent predictors: prior atherosclerotic vascular event, left atrial size > 26 mm/m(2), ejection fraction 1.000 ng/L, and troponin-positive. On the basis of Cox models, the MUSIC Risk scores were calculated. A cardiac mortality score > 20 points identified a high-risk subgroup with a four-fold cardiac mortality risk. A simple score with a limited number of non-invasive variables successfully predicted cardiac mortality in a real-life cohort of CHF patients. The use of this model in clinical practice identifies a subgroup of high-risk patients that should be closely managed. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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