Can neonatal sepsis be predicted in late preterm premature rupture of membranes? Development of a prediction model
| Autor: | Godfried C.H. Metz, Christine Willekes, Martina Porath, Gerald Mantel, Brent C. Opmeer, Bettina M.C. Akerboom, Antonius L.M. Mulder, Dimitri N.M. Papatsonis, Jan G. Nijhuis, Johannes J. van Beek, Sander M. J. van Kuijk, Kitty W.M. Bloemenkamp, David P. van der Ham, Ben W.J. Mol, Anneke Kwee, Martiët Groenewout, Aren J. van Loon |
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| Přispěvatelé: | Clinical Research Unit, Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Epidemiologie, Kindergeneeskunde, Obstetrie & Gynaecologie, RS: CAPHRI School for Public Health and Primary Care, RS: GROW - Developmental Biology, RS: CAPHRI - Clinical epidemiology, RS: GROW - R4 - Reproductive and Perinatal Medicine |
| Rok vydání: | 2013 |
| Předmět: |
Adult
Risk medicine.medical_specialty Fetal Membranes Premature Rupture PROTEIN Prom Logistic regression Models Biological Infant Newborn Diseases law.invention Body Temperature Randomized controlled trial law Prediction model Pregnancy Sepsis Late preterm premature rupture of membranes Predicting medicine Late preterm Humans Receiver operating characteristic Neonatal sepsis Obstetrics business.industry Infant Newborn Obstetrics and Gynecology Middle Aged medicine.disease Prognosis PRELABOR RUPTURE C-Reactive Protein Reproductive Medicine Brier score ROC Curve Female business PPROM Premature rupture of membranes |
| Zdroj: | European journal of obstetrics gynecology and reproductive biology, 176, 90-95. ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV European Journal of Obstetrics and Gynecology and Reproductive Biology, 176, 90-95 European journal of obstetrics, gynecology, and reproductive biology, 176, 90-95. Elsevier Ireland Ltd European Journal of Obstetrics & Gynecology and Reproductive Biology, 176, 90-95. Elsevier |
| ISSN: | 1872-7654 0301-2115 |
| Popis: | Objective: Women with late preterm premature rupture of membranes (PROM) have an increased risk that their child will develop neonatal sepsis. We evaluated whether neonatal sepsis can be predicted from antepartum parameters in these women.Study design: We used multivariable logistic regression to develop a prediction model. Data were obtained from two recent randomized controlled trials on induction of labor versus expectant management in late preterm PROM (PPROMEXIL trials, (ISRCTN29313500 and ISRCTN05689407). Data from randomized as well as non-randomized women, who consented to the use of their medical data, were used. We evaluated 13 potential antepartum predictors for neonatal sepsis. Missing data were imputed. Discriminative ability of the model was expressed as the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and a calibration with both a calibration plot and the Hosmer and Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. Overall performance of the prediction model was quantified as the scaled Brier score.Results: We studied 970 women. Thirty-three (3.4%) neonates suffered neonatal sepsis. Maternal age (OR 1.09 per year), maternal CRP level (OR 1.01 per mmol/l), maternal temperature (OR 1.80 per degrees C) and positive GBS culture (OR 2.20) were associated with an increased risk of neonatal sepsis. The model had an area under the ROC-curve of 0.71. The model had both a good calibration and accuracy.Conclusions: Antepartum parameters aid in the more precise prediction of the risk of neonatal sepsis in women with late preterm PPROM. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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