Projecting terrestrial biodiversity intactness with GLOBIO 4
| Autor: | Jonathan C. Doelman, Eddy Scheper, Sido Mylius, Mark A. J. Huijbregts, Willem-Jan van Zeist, Aafke M. Schipper, Elke Stehfest, Melinda M.J. de Jonge, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Rob Alkemade, Jelle P. Hilbers, Laura H. Antão, Luuk H. Leemans, Ana Benítez-López, Johan Meijer |
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| Přispěvatelé: | Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme, Research Centre for Ecological Change, Environmental Sciences |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2020 |
| Předmět: |
0106 biological sciences
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences DIVERSITY Biodiversity 01 natural sciences population abundance nitrogen Agricultural land mean species abundance 11. Sustainability Primary Research Article Land use land-use change and forestry biodiversity General Environmental Science 2. Zero hunger Global and Planetary Change CLIMATE-CHANGE fossil Habitat fragmentation Ecology Environmental resource management article Agriculture EXPANSION LAND-USE CHANGE environmental change SCENARIOS agricultural land climate change biodiversity scenarios Milieusysteemanalyse 1181 Ecology evolutionary biology Downscaling COUNTRIES IMPACTS anthropocene productivity Climate Change CONSERVATION Climate change 010603 evolutionary biology tropics Environmental Chemistry controlled study Agricultural productivity fossil fuel Ecosystem 0105 earth and related environmental sciences land-use downscaling nonhuman Land use business.industry global environmental change PATHWAYS 15. Life on land Primary Research Articles MODEL Environmental Systems Analysis Africa south of the Sahara 13. Climate action Environmental science land‐use downscaling habitat fragmentation diet business Environmental Sciences |
| Zdroj: | Global Change Biology 26 (2020) 2 Global Change Biology Global Change Biology, 26(2), 760-771 Global Change Biology, 26, 760-771 Global Change Biology, 26, 2, pp. 760-771 Digital.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC instname Global Change Biology, 26(2), 760. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd (10.1111) |
| ISSN: | 1354-1013 |
| Popis: | Schipper, Aafke M. et al. Scenario‐based biodiversity modelling is a powerful approach to evaluate how possible future socio‐economic developments may affect biodiversity. Here, we evaluated the changes in terrestrial biodiversity intactness, expressed by the mean species abundance (MSA) metric, resulting from three of the shared socio‐economic pathways (SSPs) combined with different levels of climate change (according to representative concentration pathways [RCPs]): a future oriented towards sustainability (SSP1xRCP2.6), a future determined by a politically divided world (SSP3xRCP6.0) and a future with continued global dependency on fossil fuels (SSP5xRCP8.5). To this end, we first updated the GLOBIO model, which now runs at a spatial resolution of 10 arc‐seconds (~300 m), contains new modules for downscaling land use and for quantifying impacts of hunting in the tropics, and updated modules to quantify impacts of climate change, land use, habitat fragmentation and nitrogen pollution. We then used the updated model to project terrestrial biodiversity intactness from 2015 to 2050 as a function of land use and climate changes corresponding with the selected scenarios. We estimated a global area‐weighted mean MSA of 0.56 for 2015. Biodiversity intactness declined in all three scenarios, yet the decline was smaller in the sustainability scenario (−0.02) than the regional rivalry and fossil‐fuelled development scenarios (−0.06 and −0.05 respectively). We further found considerable variation in projected biodiversity change among different world regions, with large future losses particularly for sub‐Saharan Africa. In some scenario‐region combinations, we projected future biodiversity recovery due to reduced demands for agricultural land, yet this recovery was counteracted by increased impacts of other pressures (notably climate change and road disturbance). Effective measures to halt or reverse the decline of terrestrial biodiversity should not only reduce land demand (e.g. by increasing agricultural productivity and dietary changes) but also focus on reducing or mitigating the impacts of other pressures |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/projecting-terrestrial-biodiversity-intactness-with-globio-4
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