Constructing and adjusting estimates for household transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from prior studies, widespread-testing and contact-tracing data
| Autor: | Jacob Steinhardt, Owain Evans, Mihaela Curmei, Andrew Ilyas |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: |
2019-20 coronavirus outbreak
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) Epidemiology Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Population coronavirus Test sensitivity secondary-attack rate Biology 01 natural sciences law.invention Household transmission 03 medical and health sciences 0302 clinical medicine law Statistics Humans AcademicSubjects/MED00860 030212 general & internal medicine Transmission risks and rates 0101 mathematics education education.field_of_study SARS-CoV-2 010102 general mathematics COVID-19 Bayes Theorem General Medicine Transmission (mechanics) Communicable Disease Control Original Article Contact Tracing Contact tracing |
| Zdroj: | International Journal of Epidemiology |
| ISSN: | 1464-3685 0300-5771 |
| Popis: | Background With reduced community mobility, household infections may become increasingly important in SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics. Methods We investigate the intra-household transmission of COVID-19 through the secondary-attack rate (SAR) and household reproduction number (Rh). We estimate these using (i) data from 29 prior studies (February–August 2020), (ii) epidemiologically linked confirmed cases from Singapore (January–April 2020) and (iii) widespread-testing data from Vo’ (February–March 2020). For (i), we use a Bayesian random-effects model that corrects for reverse transcription–polymerase chain reaction (RT–PCR) test sensitivity and asymptomatic cases. We investigate the robustness of Rh with respect to community transmission rates and mobility patterns. Results The corrected pooled estimates from prior studies for SAR and Rh are 24% (20–28%) and 0.34 (0.30–0.38), respectively. Without corrections, the pooled estimates are: SAR = 18% (14–21%) and Rh = 0.28 (0.25–0.32). The corrected estimates line up with direct estimates from contact-tracing data from Singapore [Rh = 0.32 (0.22–0.42)] and population testing data from Vo’ [SAR = 31% (28–34%) and Rh = 0.37 (0.34–0.40)]. The analysis of Singapore data further suggests that the value of Rh (0.22–0.42) is robust to community-spread dynamics; our estimate of Rh stays constant whereas the fraction of infections attributable to household transmission (Rh/Reff) is lowest during outbreaks (5–7%) and highest during lockdowns and periods of low community spread (25–30%). Conclusions The three data-source types yield broadly consistent estimates for SAR and Rh. Our study suggests that household infections are responsible for a large fraction of infections and so household transmission may be an effective target for intervention. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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