Warming reduces global agricultural production by decreasing cropping frequency and yields

Autor: Peng Zhu, Jennifer Burney, Jinfeng Chang, Zhenong Jin, Nathaniel D. Mueller, Qinchuan Xin, Jialu Xu, Le Yu, David Makowski, Philippe Ciais
Přispěvatelé: Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), University of California (UC), Zhejiang University, University of Minnesota System, Colorado State University [Pueblo] (CSUPueblo), National Sun Yat-Sen University (NSYSU), Beijing Normal University (BNU), Tsinghua University [Beijing] (THU), Mathématiques et Informatique Appliquées (MIA Paris-Saclay), AgroParisTech-Université Paris-Saclay-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), P.Z. and P.C. are supported by the CLAND project (grant no. 16-CONV-0003) and ISIPEDIA: The Open Inter-Sectoral Impacts Encyclopedia (grant no. ANR-17-ERA4-0006 - ISIPEDIA). D.M. is supported by the CLAND project (grant no. 16-CONV-0003) and meta-programme CLIMAE-INRAE. L.Y. is supported by Tsinghua University Initiative Scientific Research Programme (2021Z11GHX002, 20223080017). J.B. is supported by NSF/NIFA no. 1639318 INFEWS/T1. J.C. is supported by the National Key Research and Development Programme of China (2021YFE0114500). Q.X. is supported by National Key Research and Development Programme of China (grant no. 2017YFA0604300).
Rok vydání: 2022
Předmět:
Zdroj: Nature Climate Change
Nature Climate Change, 2022, 12 (11), pp.1016. ⟨10.1038/s41558-022-01492-5⟩
ISSN: 1758-6798
1758-678X
Popis: International audience; Annual food caloric production is the product of caloric yield, cropping frequency (CF, number of production seasons per year) and cropland area. Existing studies have largely focused on crop yield, whereas how CF responds to climate change remains poorly understood. Here, we evaluate the global climate sensitivity of caloric yields and CF at national scale. We find a robust negative association between warming and both caloric yield and CF. By the 2050s, projected CF increases in cold regions are offset by larger decreases in warm regions, resulting in a net global CF reduction (-4.2 +/- 2.5% in high emission scenario), suggesting that climate-driven decline in CF will exacerbate crop production loss and not provide climate adaptation alone. Although irrigation is effective in offsetting the projected production loss, irrigation areas have to be expanded by >5% in warm regions to fully offset climate-induced production losses by the 2050s.Climate change will impact agriculture, and this study shows cropping frequency and caloric yield are negatively impacted on the global scale by warming. While cold regions will increase cropping frequency, warm regions will see greater decreases, resulting in an overall decline in production.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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