Air traffic forecast in post-liberalization context: a Dynamic Linear Models approach
Autor: | Wilmer. Pineda, Yesid Rodriguez, Oscar Díaz Olariaga |
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Jazyk: | angličtina |
Rok vydání: | 2020 |
Předmět: |
050210 logistics & transportation
Liberalization air transport 05 social sciences 0211 other engineering and technologies Linear model Aerospace Engineering 021107 urban & regional planning Context (language use) TL1-4050 02 engineering and technology Air traffic control Colombia Dynamic Linear Models airport 0502 economics and business Econometrics Economics air traffic forecast liberalization Motor vehicles. Aeronautics. Astronautics |
Zdroj: | Aviation; Vol 24 No 1 (2020); 10-19 Aviation, Vol 24, Iss 1 (2020) |
ISSN: | 1648-7788 1822-4180 |
Popis: | The process of air transport liberalization in Colombia began in 1991. Liberalization entailed the entry of private capital into the airport sector which subsequently led, in several temporary phases, to the privatization of the country’s main airports. Simultaneously, new air operators entered the market. This new market situation, supported by the complete deregulation of airfares, generated a dynamic and sustained growth of air transport in Colombia for two decades. Within the context of post-liberalization, this article presents a forecast (medium-term – 5 years period) of air traffic in the country’s main airport using DLMs (Dynamic Linear Models). It has the following advantages vs. the usual forecast calculation methodologies: it detects stochastic tendencies that are hidden in the time series. It also detects structural changes that allow estimating the variable effect of exogenous shocks over time without increasing the number of parameters. From the results obtained, it should be noted that the application of DLMs presents MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) values below 1%, which guarantees predictions of higher accuracy and thus introduces a new alternative model to develop reliable forecasts in air transport, at least in the medium-term. |
Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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