Global Imbalances: Origins and Prospects
| Autor: | Luis Serven, Ha Nguyen |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2013 |
| Předmět: |
oil-exporting countries
Macroeconomics Economics and Econometrics capital flows financial crisis Global imbalances Current account International economics asset markets Development economic stability market forces World economy Information and Communications Technology Financial crisis Economics Gold Standard macroeconomic policy Empirical evidence Emerging markets current account Economic stability global imbalances global economy |
| Zdroj: | The World Bank Research Observer. 28:191-219 |
| ISSN: | 1564-6971 0257-3032 |
| DOI: | 10.1093/wbro/lkt002 |
| Popis: | This paper surveys the academic and policy debate on the origins of global imbalances, their prospects after the global crisis, and their policy implications. A conventional view of global imbalances considers them to primarily result from macroeconomic policies and cyclical forces that cause demand for goods to outstrip supply in the United States and other rich countries and that have the opposite effect in major emerging markets. An alternative view holds that global imbalances are the result of structural distortions and slow-changing factors that primarily affect assets markets. This paper reviews the analytical underpinnings of these two perspectives and the empirical evidence of their respective merits. The paper then assesses the outlook for global imbalances after the crisis, particularly in terms of policy action to reduce their magnitude. Policy intervention is warranted to the extent that the imbalances are driven by welfare-reducing distortions, but in this case, the primary target of policy intervention should be the distortions rather than the imbalances. Finally, the paper examines various forms of international spillovers that may call for multilateral action to limit global imbalances. The paper is organized as follows. Section 2 provides a brief retrospective on global imbalances. Section 3 summarizes various views of their causes. Section 4 discusses the outlook for global imbalances after the crisis and the case for national and international policy action to achieve rebalancing. Section 5 concludes the paper. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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