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The quantification of trade-offs between social-economic and environmental effects is of great importance, especially in the semi-arid coastal areas with highly developed agriculture. The study presents an integrated multi-objective simulation-optimization (S-O) framework to evaluate the basin-scale water-environment-agriculture (WEA) nexus. First, the variable-density groundwater model (SEAWAT) is coupled to the reactive transport model (RT3D) for the first attempt to simulate the environmental effects subject to seawater intrusion (SWI) and nitrate pollution (NP). Then, the surrogate assisted multi-objective optimization algorithm is utilized to investigate the trade-offs between the net agricultural benefits and extents of SWI and NP while considering the water supply, food security, and land availability simultaneously. The S-O modeling methodology is applied to the Dagu River Basin (DRB), a typical SWI region with intensive agricultural irrigation in China. It is shown that the three-objective space based on Pareto-optimal front can be achieved by optimizing planting area in the irrigation districts, indicating the optimal evolution of the WEA nexus system. The Pareto-optimal solutions generated by multi-objective S-O model are more realistic and pragmatic, avoiding the decision bias that may often lead to cognitive myopia caused by the low-dimensional objectives. Although the net agricultural benefits in Pareto-optimal solutions are declined to some extent, the environmental objectives (the extents of SWI and NP) are improved compared to those in the pre-optimized scheme. Therefore, the proposed multi-objective S-O framework can be applied to the WEA nexus in the river basin with intensive agriculture development, which is significant to implement the integrated management of water, food, and environment, especially for the semi-arid coastal aquifers. |
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