| Autor: |
Stoetzer, Lukas, Leininger, Arndt, Kayser, Mark, Murr, Andreas |
| Rok vydání: |
2022 |
| Předmět: |
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| DOI: |
10.17605/osf.io/ewpbu |
| Popis: |
We will conduct a citizen forecasting project for the German Federal Election of 2021. We will field a survey that asks respondents about the expected vote share for the parties on the federal level and for the district candidate results. Afterward, we will conduct a between-subject design in which we show respondents either information from the most recent poll about party support, information about the last district results, or both and ask them again about their expected district candidate results. We aim to identify whether the extra information provided to respondents increases predictive accuracy and certainty in citizen forecasts of district-level results. We further study whether the extra information provided better aligns respondents' forecasts with proportional or unit swing forecasting models. |
| Databáze: |
OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
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