Methodological approach for substantiating disease freedom in a heterogeneous small population. Application to ovine scrapie, a disease with a strong genetic susceptibility
| Autor: | Didier Calavas, Christian Ducrot, Marie-José Martinez, Benoit Durand |
|---|---|
| Přispěvatelé: | Unité de recherche d'Épidémiologie Animale (UEA), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Modelling and Inference of Complex and Structured Stochastic Systems (MISTIS), Inria Grenoble - Rhône-Alpes, Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique (Inria)-Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique (Inria)-Laboratoire Jean Kuntzmann (LJK), Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 (UPMF)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut Polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 (UPMF)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut Polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Institut National Polytechnique de Grenoble (INPG), Laboratoire de Lyon, Agence nationale de sécurité sanitaire de l'alimentation, de l'environnement et du travail (ANSES), Unité de Recherche d'Épidémiologie Animale (UR EpiA), Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 (UPMF)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 (UPMF)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Laboratoire de Lyon [ANSES], Université de Lyon-Agence nationale de sécurité sanitaire de l'alimentation, de l'environnement et du travail (ANSES) |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2010 |
| Předmět: |
Male
040301 veterinary sciences MESH: Probability Population MESH: Sheep Scrapie Biology MESH: Risk Assessment Risk Assessment Statistical power 0403 veterinary science POPULATION HETEROGENEITY 03 medical and health sciences DISEASE FREEDOM Food Animals HYPERGEOMETRIC DISTRIBUTION Statistics Prevalence Genetic predisposition Animals Genetic Predisposition to Disease MESH: Animals education MESH: Prevalence Probability 030304 developmental biology 0303 health sciences education.field_of_study Sheep [SDV.BA.MVSA]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Animal biology/Veterinary medicine and animal Health MESH: Genetic Predisposition to Disease Sampling (statistics) 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences Confidence interval Hypergeometric distribution MESH: Male Relative risk MESH: Scrapie MESH: Sentinel Surveillance Female Animal Science and Zoology [SDV.SPEE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie Sentinel Surveillance MESH: Female [STAT.ME]Statistics [stat]/Methodology [stat.ME] |
| Zdroj: | Preventive Veterinary Medicine Preventive Veterinary Medicine, Elsevier, 2010, 95 (1-2), pp.108-114. ⟨10.1016/j.prevetmed.2010.02.017⟩ Preventive Veterinary Medicine, 2010, 95 (1-2), pp.108-114. ⟨10.1016/j.prevetmed.2010.02.017⟩ |
| ISSN: | 0167-5877 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2010.02.017⟩ |
| Popis: | International audience; Demonstrating disease freedom is becoming important in different fields including animal disease control. Most methods consider sampling only from a homogeneous population in which each animal has the same probability of becoming infected. In this paper, we propose a new methodology to calculate the probability of detecting the disease if it is present in a heterogeneous population of small size with potentially different risk groups, differences in risk being defined using relative risks. To calculate this probability, for each possible arrangement of the infected animals in the different groups, the probability that all the animals tested are test-negative given this arrangement is multiplied by the probability that this arrangement occurs. The probability formula is developed using the assumption of a perfect test and hypergeometric sampling for finite small size populations. The methodology is applied to scrapie, a disease affecting small ruminants and characterized in sheep by a strong genetic susceptibility defining different risk groups. It illustrates that the genotypes of the tested animals influence heavily the confidence level of detecting scrapie. The results present the statistical power for substantiating disease freedom in a small heterogeneous population as a function of the design prevalence, the structure of the sample tested, the structure of the herd and the associated relative risks. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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