Ensemble methods in combination with compartment models for blood glucose level prediction in type 1 diabetes mellitus
Autor: | Kateřina Štechová, Martin Macas, Lenka Lhotska, Pavlina Pithova, Kyriaki Saiti |
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Rok vydání: | 2020 |
Předmět: |
Blood Glucose
Decision support system Boosting (machine learning) Computer science Health Informatics Disease Machine learning computer.software_genre Diabetes treatment 030218 nuclear medicine & medical imaging 03 medical and health sciences 0302 clinical medicine Diabetes mellitus medicine Humans Insulin Compartment (pharmacokinetics) Type 1 diabetes business.industry Blood Glucose Self-Monitoring Short-acting insulin medicine.disease Ensemble learning Computer Science Applications Diabetes Mellitus Type 1 Artificial intelligence Insulin absorption business computer Algorithms 030217 neurology & neurosurgery Software |
Zdroj: | Computer Methods and Programs in Biomedicine. 196:105628 |
ISSN: | 0169-2607 |
Popis: | Backgroung: Type 1 diabetes is a disease that adversely affects the daily life of a large percentage of people worldwide. Daily glucose levels regulation and useful advices provided to patients regarding their diet are essential for diabetes treatment. For this reason, the interest of the academic community has focused on developing innovative systems, such as decision support systems, based on glucose prediction algorithms. The present work presents the predictive capabilities of ensemble methods compared to individual algorithms while combining each method with compartment models for fast acting insulin absorption simulation. Methods: An approach of combining widely used glycemia prediction algorithms is proposed and three different ensemble methods (Linear, Bagging and Boosting metaregressor) are applied and evaluated on their ability to provide accurate predictions for 30, 45 and 60 minutes ahead prediction horizon. Moreover, glycemia levels, long and short acting insulin dosages and consumed carbohydrates from six type one people with diabetes are used as input data and the results are evaluated in terms of root-mean square error and Clarke error grid analysis. Results: According to results, ensemble methods can provide more accurate glucose concentration in comparison to individual algorithms. Bagging metaregressor, specifically, performed better than individual algorithms in all prediction horizons for small datasets. Bagging ensemble method improved the percentage in zone A according to Clarkes error grid analysis by 4% and in some cases by 9%. Moreover, compartment models are proved to improve results in combination with any method at any prediction horizon. This strengthen the potential practical usefulness of the ensemble methods and the importance of building accurate compartment models. |
Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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