Comparison of Machine Learning Classifiers for Accurate Prediction of Real-Time Stuck Pipe Incidents

Autor: Adam Glowacz, Nazia Zeb, Muhammad Irfan, Fong Kam Yao, Javed Akbar Khan, Sonny Irawan, Ahmad Radzi Shahari, Shokor A. Rahaman
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2020
Předmět:
RBF Kernel function
Control and Optimization
Computer science
020209 energy
Activation function
drilling operation
stuck pipe
Energy Engineering and Power Technology
02 engineering and technology
Machine learning
computer.software_genre
lcsh:Technology
Well drilling
support vector machines
chemistry.chemical_compound
020401 chemical engineering
Drilling fluid
0202 electrical engineering
electronic engineering
information engineering
Radial basis function
Sensitivity (control systems)
0204 chemical engineering
Electrical and Electronic Engineering
Engineering (miscellaneous)
Artificial neural network
Renewable Energy
Sustainability and the Environment
business.industry
lcsh:T
Drilling
machine learning classifiers
Support vector machine
chemistry
Kernel (statistics)
Petroleum
artificial neural networks
sensitivity analysis
Artificial intelligence
business
computer
Energy (miscellaneous)
Zdroj: Energies; Volume 13; Issue 14; Pages: 3683
Energies, Vol 13, Iss 3683, p 3683 (2020)
ISSN: 1996-1073
DOI: 10.3390/en13143683
Popis: Stuck pipe incidents are one of the contributors to non-productive time (NPT), where they can result in a higher well cost. This research investigates the feasibility of applying machine learning to predict events of stuck pipes during drilling operations in petroleum fields. The predictive model aims to predict the occurrence of stuck pipes so that relevant drilling operation personnel are warned to enact a mitigation plan to prevent stuck pipes. Two machine learning methodologies were studied in this research, namely, the artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector machine (SVM). A total of 268 data sets were successfully collected through data extraction for the well drilling operation. The data also consist of the parameters with which the stuck pipes occurred during the drilling operations. These drilling parameters include information such as the properties of the drilling fluid, bottom-hole assembly (BHA) specification, state of the bore-hole and operating conditions. The R programming software was used to construct both the ANN and SVM machine learning models. The prediction performance of the machine learning models was evaluated in terms of accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Sensitivity analysis was conducted on these two machine learning models. For the ANN, two activation functions—namely, the logistic activation function and hyperbolic tangent activation function—were tested. Additionally, all the possible combinations of network structures, from [19, 1, 1, 1, 1] to [19, 10, 10, 10, 1], were tested for each activation function. For the SVM, three kernel functions—namely, linear, Radial Basis Function (RBF) and polynomial—were tested. Apart from that, SVM hyper-parameters such as the regularization factor (C), sigma (σ) and degree (D) were used in sensitivity analysis as well. The results from the sensitivity analysis demonstrate that the best ANN model managed to achieve an 88.89% accuracy, 91.89% sensitivity and 86.36% specificity, whereas the best SVM model managed to achieve an 83.95% accuracy, 86.49% sensitivity and 81.82% specificity. Upon comparison, the ANN model is the better machine learning model in this study because its accuracy, sensitivity and specificity are consistently higher than those of the best SVM model. In conclusion, judging from the promising prediction accurateness as demonstrated in the results of this study, it is suggested that stuck pipe prediction using machine learning is indeed practical.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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