The transmissibility estimation of influenza with early stage data of small-scale outbreaks in Changsha, China, 2005–2013
| Autor: | Chen Tm, Szot A, Zhou Ss, Jiayong Zhao, Liu Rc, Songhua Chen, Chen Qp |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2016 |
| Předmět: |
Mainland China
Adult Male China Adolescent Epidemiology 030231 tropical medicine Population Basic Reproduction Number Standard deviation Disease Outbreaks 03 medical and health sciences Young Adult 0302 clinical medicine Influenza Human Gamma distribution Disease Transmission Infectious Humans 030212 general & internal medicine education Child Disease burden Aged education.field_of_study Outbreak reproduction number Middle Aged Models Theoretical Virology Original Papers Influenza Infectious Diseases Geography small-scale outbreak Female Epidemic model Basic reproduction number mathematical model Demography |
| Zdroj: | Epidemiology and Infection |
| ISSN: | 1469-4409 0950-2688 |
| Popis: | SUMMARYHundreds of small-scale influenza outbreaks in schools are reported in mainland China every year, leading to a heavy disease burden which seriously impacts the operation of affected schools. Knowing the transmissibility of each outbreak in the early stage has become a major concern for public health policy-makers and primary healthcare providers. In this study, we collected all the small-scale outbreaks in Changsha (a large city in south central China with ~7·04 million population) from January 2005 to December 2013. Four simple and popularly used models were employed to calculate the reproduction number (R) of these outbreaks. Given that the duration of a generation interval Tc = 2·7 and the standard deviation (s.d.)σ = 1·1, the mean R estimated by an epidemic model, normal distribution and delta distribution were 2·51 (s.d. = 0·73), 4·11 (s.d. = 2·20) and 5·88 (s.d. = 5·00), respectively. When Tc = 2·9 and σ = 1·4, the mean R estimated by the three models were 2·62 (s.d. = 0·78), 4·72 (s.d. = 2·82) and 6·86 (s.d. = 6·34), respectively. The mean R estimated by gamma distribution was 4·32 (s.d. = 2·47). We found that the values of R in small-scale outbreaks in schools were higher than in large-scale outbreaks in a neighbourhood, city or province. Normal distribution, delta distribution, and gamma distribution models seem to more easily overestimate the R of influenza outbreaks compared to the epidemic model. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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