Strategies for COVID-19 vaccination under a shortage scenario: a geo-stochastic modelling approach

Autor: Matias Nuñez, Pablo G. Bolcatto, Rafael A. Barrio, Tzipe Govezensky, N. L. Barreiro, C. I. Ventura
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2021
Předmět:
FOS: Computer and information sciences
Physics - Physics and Society
J.2
COVID-19 Vaccines
J.3
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)
J.4
Epidemiology
Stochastic modelling
Computer science
Science
Argentina
Psychological intervention
FOS: Physical sciences
Economic shortage
Physics and Society (physics.soc-ph)
Health Services Accessibility
Article
World health
Pandemic
Econometrics
Humans
Statistical physics
thermodynamics and nonlinear dynamics
Social Behavior
Quantitative Biology - Populations and Evolution
Mexico
Pandemics
Social and Information Networks (cs.SI)
Stochastic Processes
Travel
Models
Statistical
Multidisciplinary
Immunization Programs
SARS-CoV-2
Vaccination
Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE)
COVID-19
Computer Science - Social and Information Networks
Immunization (finance)
Spain
FOS: Biological sciences
Medicine
Zdroj: Scientific Reports, Vol 12, Iss 1, Pp 1-12 (2022)
Scientific Reports
Popis: In a world being hit by waves of COVID-19, vaccination is a light on the horizon. However, the roll-out of vaccination strategies and their influence on the pandemic are still open problems. In order to compare the effect of various strategies proposed by the World Health Organization and other authorities, a previously developed SEIRS stochastic model of geographical spreading of the virus is extended by adding a compartment for vaccinated people. The parameters of the model were fitted to describe the pandemic evolution in Argentina, Mexico and Spain to analyze the effect of the proposed vaccination strategies. The mobility parameters allow to simulate different social behaviors (e.g. lock-down interventions). Schemes in which vaccines are applied homogeneously in all the country, or limited to the most densely-populated areas, are simulated and compared. The second strategy is found to be more effective. Moreover, under the current global shortage of vaccines, it should be remarked that immunization is enhanced when mobility is reduced. Additionally, repetition of vaccination campaigns should be timed considering the immunity lapse of the vaccinated (and recovered) people. Finally, the model is extended to include the effect of isolation of detected positive cases, shown to be important to reduce infections.
Preprint main: 16 pages with 6 figures; Supplementary Information: 7 pages with 3 figures
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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