Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in South Korea
| Autor: | Jaeyong Lee, Seongil Jo, Kwangmin Lee |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: |
FOS: Computer and information sciences
Statistics and Probability Population Posterior probability Coverage probability Bayesian analysis Seroprevalence medicine.disease_cause 01 natural sciences Statistics - Applications 010104 statistics & probability 0502 economics and business Prior probability Statistics Credible interval medicine Applications (stat.AP) 0101 mathematics education 050205 econometrics Mathematics Coronavirus education.field_of_study SARS-CoV-2 05 social sciences Informative prior Confidence interval Research Article |
| Zdroj: | Journal of the Korean Statistical Society |
| ISSN: | 2005-2863 1226-3192 |
| Popis: | In 2020, Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency reported three rounds of surveys on seroprevalence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) antibodies in South Korea. SARS-CoV-2 is the virus which inflicts the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We analyze the seroprevalence surveys using a Bayesian method with an informative prior distribution on the seroprevalence parameter, and the sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic test. We construct the informative prior of the sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic test using the posterior distribution obtained from the clinical evaluation data. The constraint of the seroprevalence parameter induced from the known confirmed coronavirus 2019 cases can be imposed naturally in the proposed Bayesian model. We also prove that the confidence interval of the seroprevalence parameter based on the Rao’s test can be the empty set, while the Bayesian method renders interval estimators with coverage probability close to the nominal level. As of the 30th of October 2020, the \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\,\,\,\,\,\,95\%\,\,\,\,\,\,$$\end{document}95% credible interval of the estimated SARS-CoV-2 positive population does not exceed 318, 685, approximately \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$0.62\%$$\end{document}0.62% of the Korean population. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s42952-021-00131-7. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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