Spatiotemporal risk mapping of hand, foot and mouth disease and its association with meteorological variables in children under 5 years
| Autor: | Chengdong Xu, G X Xiao |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2017 |
| Předmět: |
Male
Risk China medicine.medical_specialty Time Factors Meteorological Concepts Epidemiology 030231 tropical medicine Geographic Mapping Hand-foot-and-mouth disease 03 medical and health sciences 0302 clinical medicine Risk mapping medicine Humans 030212 general & internal medicine Spatial Analysis Foot-and-mouth disease business.industry Incidence Incidence (epidemiology) Infant Newborn Infant Bayes Theorem Model hierarchy medicine.disease Original Papers Surgery Infectious Diseases Child Preschool Air temperature Relative risk Female Seasons Hand Foot and Mouth Disease business Demography |
| Zdroj: | Epidemiol Infect |
| ISSN: | 1469-4409 0950-2688 |
| DOI: | 10.1017/s0950268817001984 |
| Popis: | SUMMARYHand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) risk has become an increasing concern in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region, which is the biggest urban agglomeration in north-eastern Asia. In the study, spatiotemporal epidemiological features of HFMD were analysed, and a Bayesian space–time hierarchy model was used to detect local spatial relative risk (RR) and to assess the effect of meteorological factors. From 2009 to 2013, there was an obvious seasonal pattern of HFMD risk. The highest risk period was in the summer, with an average monthly incidence of 4·17/103, whereas the index in wintertime was 0·16/103. Meteorological variables influenced temporal changes in HFMD. A 1 °C rise in air temperature was associated with an 11·5% increase in HFMD (corresponding RR 1·122). A 1% rise in relative humidity was related to a 9·51% increase in the number of HFMD cases (corresponding RR 1·100). A 1 hPa increment in air pressure was related to a 0·11% decrease in HFMD (corresponding RR 0·999). A 1 h increase in sunshine was associated with a 0·28% rise in HFMD cases (corresponding RR 1·003). A 1 m/s rise in wind speed was related to a 6·2% increase in HFMD (corresponding RR 1·064). High-risk areas were mainly large cities, such as Beijing, Tianjin, Shijiazhuang and their neighbouring areas. These findings can contribute to risk control and implementation of disease-prevention policies. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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