Detail or uncertainty? Applying global sensitivity analysis to strike a balance in energy system models

Autor: Maria Yliruka, Stefano Moret, Nilay Shah
Rok vydání: 2023
Předmět:
Zdroj: Computers & Chemical Engineering, 177
ISSN: 0098-1354
1873-4375
Popis: Energy systems modellers often resort to simplified system representations and deterministic model formulations (i.e., not considering uncertainty) to preserve computational tractability. However, reduced levels of detail and neglected uncertainties can both lead to sub-optimal system designs. Herein, we present a novel method that quantitatively compares the impact of detail and uncertainty to guide model development and help prioritisation of the limited computational resources. By considering modelling choices as an additional ‘uncertain’ parameter in a global sensitivity analysis, the method determines their qualitative ranking against conventional input parameters. As a case study, the method is applied to a peer-reviewed heat decarbonisation model for the United Kingdom with the objective of assessing the importance of spatial resolution. The results show that while for the optimal total system cost the impact of spatial resolution is negligible, it is the most important factor determining the capacities of electricity, gas and heat networks.
Computers & Chemical Engineering, 177
ISSN:0098-1354
ISSN:1873-4375
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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